Pot Equity and flush draw

#1 09-21-2005, 12:32 PM

SB no read; BB is TPP; MP2 is TPA; MP3 is sLAA

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 6 BB

My question is primarily concerned with my raise on the flop. (though other criticisms are welcomed) If my understanding of pot equity is correct, there are 5.0 SB (including BB flop bet) I have roughly 40% chance of taking the hand, so equity would be 2 SB. (is this correct?) So my thought was that this justified a raise. However, do I want to chase the players behind me out? They are tight so I can assume they will likely fold to my raise.
Also, should I have bet the turn, or is it right to take the free card? Thanks.

#2 09-21-2005, 12:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
SB no read; BB is TPP; MP2 is TPA; MP3 is sLAA

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, MP2 folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 6 BB

My question is primarily concerned with my raise on the flop. (though other criticisms are welcomed) If my understanding of pot equity is correct, there are 5.0 SB (including BB flop bet) I have roughly 40% chance of taking the hand, so equity would be 2 SB. (is this correct?) So my thought was that this justified a raise. However, do I want to chase the players behind me out? They are tight so I can assume they will likely fold to my raise.
Also, should I have bet the turn, or is it right to take the free card? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't raise the flop for the reasons you mention. The pot is small, so most of your value is going to come if you make a flush and get paid off, so I want people in the pot.

If the pot is bigger, there is more value to a raise as you actually want to knock a hand like AJ out so if you hit an ace you can win the pot.

xenthebrain · #3 09-21-2005, 12:41 PM

In a bigger pot I would raise the flop to increase my chances of winning the pot by spinking an ace (or even UI).
In this small pot you don't want to chase anyone out, since the money you make will come from making the flush and getting big bets on later streets.

If you were last to act and the guy first to act bets it might be different, but here are players yet to act behind you.

KingOtter · #4 09-21-2005, 12:42 PM

You shouldn't have raised there. Calling would have been preferable. If SB had bet, BB had called, then you could raise profitably.

The reason is because of your equity, and you're only contributing 33% of the money, but have 35% of the equity with a nut flush draw, since it will most likely win.

That's how I use equity calculations in bet/raise situations anyway.

KO

bozlax · #5 09-21-2005, 12:48 PM

Only worry about what's in the pot when you're deciding if you should call or fold. If you're deciding when to raise (or open-bet) you have to compare the equity your hand has (35% for the NFD on the flop) to the number of players in the hand with you...you want the percentage of the money you're putting into the pot to be lower than your pot equity, so in this case you want to be sure there will be at least 2 other players in the pot with you (or that you'll drive everybody out). Since the bet came from your immediate right, your best chance is to call that bet and hope that a couple of other players ride along with you.

#6 09-21-2005, 12:54 PM

Ok, what if the BB checked the flop instead of bet, should I bet then? Also, was checking the turn correct?

aces_dad · #7 09-21-2005, 01:20 PM

If checked to you on the flop, betting it is right. In this hand, what you don't want to do is face a smallish field with 2 cold. If you had a bet and at least one caller already is when you can consider raising. In late position with a bet and 2+ callers and it's a value raise.

Taking the free card on the turn is the right move here. While you raised the flop thinking it was for equity, that may have well been why you got checked to on the turn, so take the free card and complete the flush.

bozlax · #8 09-21-2005, 01:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, what if the BB checked the flop instead of bet, should I bet then? Also, was checking the turn correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely bet if checked to on this flop, unless you have a read that the player on your left is aggressive postflop, in which case you don't want to risk betting and having HIM raise and face the field with two (in that case I'd check to him, and raise when it came back around to me). You don't want this flop to check through, though, your draw is too strong.

(I see by looking back that your read on MP2 is TPA...depending on how aggro you've seen him be, you might be able to go for the check-raise if checked to.)

Depending on how tight BB is, I might fire again when checked to on the turn...but your FE is probably pretty low against a TPP that bet into you on the flop. I don't think it's a huge mistake either way but, personally, I'd probably bet/call that turn.

shadow29 · #9 09-21-2005, 01:58 PM

From my 2+2 Internet Magazine article:

[ QUOTE ]
You have Ah 5h UTG and you limp in a loose, but passive $.5/$1 game.
Three players limp behind you, the SB completes and the BB checks,
leaving 6 SBs and 6 players. The flop comes Kh 2s 8h. The SB checks
and the BB bets. What do you do?

Many micro limit players instinctively raise here, as they vaguely
remember something about a pot equity edge that flush draws have.
While this edge is real, raising here is not correct. Raising might
potentially knock out the three limpers behind you, as well as the SB,
since this flop is rather ragged and a raise forces four remaining
players to call two cold, potentially leaving you heads up. Thus, you
would no longer have a pot equity edge, but a pot equity deficit.
Moreover, raising could leave you open to an expensive 3-bet if the
villain has a ragged two pair or asset. Paying 1.5 BBs to see the
turn heads up is not a favorable situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

aces_dad · #10 09-21-2005, 02:02 PM

But you have [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and hero has [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ???

nh