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Old 12-23-2005, 09:29 AM
Ghazban Ghazban is offline
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Default Do you ever chase a gutshot? Party 2/4 6-max

Villain is not good; I'm at my parents' house and don't have PT so I'm making reads the old fashioned way (i.e. no stats). He's passive preflop, seeing a lot of flops but not raising too much. He also always raises too small postflop (minraising and just-over-minraising are his main moves). Effective stacks $430.

Folded to me in CO, I make it $16 straight with QsTs, button and SB fold, Villain in BB calls.

Flop: K93r ($34) -- with one spade, but I don't recall which one

He checks, I bet $25, he checkraises to $60, I call. Horrible?

My thinking is that I have 4 outs to the nuts plus a tiny bit of equity for a backdoor flush. On the 4 outs alone, I need 11:1 immediate+implied odds so I basically need to stack him if I hit on the turn, fold if its a brick and make a decision if its a 4th spade.
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Old 12-23-2005, 09:33 AM
-Skeme- -Skeme- is offline
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Default Re: Do you ever chase a gutshot? Party 2/4 6-max

According to my math you only need to make $231 from him after the flop call, but my math is usually horrible. Can anybody verify?

As to the question, I don't think calling there is horrible. It certainly looks like you can stack him if you play it goot once you hit, but I really think it just comes down to math.
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Old 12-23-2005, 09:40 AM
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Default Re: Do you ever chase a gutshot? Party 2/4 6-max

The math is right, but you are probably stacking if you are getting 231.

Effective stack after calling the raise is 354, that's more than 231. So look at it this way. . . . how often are you going to be able to stack him, and how often are you not going to get much more out of him? You are probably closer to +EV now.

I think you can stack him when a harmless jack hits often enough to call here. If he's passive enough, maybe he'll even give you a free card when you call the raise [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].
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Old 12-23-2005, 10:06 AM
emil3000 emil3000 is offline
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Default Re: Do you ever chase a gutshot? Party 2/4 6-max

This is a fairly standard call for me, but I haven't done any analysis of it.

PS, your Q or T might be good occasionally, even though you'll rarely get it to showdown.
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  #5  
Old 12-23-2005, 11:11 AM
Hattifnatt Hattifnatt is offline
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Default Re: Do you ever chase a gutshot? Party 2/4 6-max

I would had played the same way as you did. I quite often find a spade on the turn and pay of a quite big bet on the turn and then miss the river, but when you get there it can get a nice pay-off..
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Old 12-23-2005, 11:45 AM
radioheadfan radioheadfan is offline
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Default Re: Do you ever chase a gutshot? Party 2/4 6-max

I like the call alot more if there's a flush draw on the flop you can bluff at later on the turn and river. Then you have your bluffing outs when the flush card falls and you real backdoor flush and gutshot outs.

This of course presumes that villian would lay down to heavy action from you if you represent a flush you don't have.

Without any bluffing equity later in the hand, I think you try to peel off the jack on the turn and then bail when it doesn't come.
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  #7  
Old 12-23-2005, 12:57 PM
runnerunner runnerunner is offline
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Default Re: Do you ever chase a gutshot? Party 2/4 6-max

I am not sure I understand your logic. Are you saying that we need him to fold to our bluff outs AND pay us when we hit our real outs? I know that our bluff outs are more obvious, but I think that this is wishful thinking.
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  #8  
Old 12-23-2005, 01:39 PM
mgsimpleton mgsimpleton is offline
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Default Re: Do you ever chase a gutshot? Party 2/4 6-max

i do this all the time but i'm also going to pounce on the first drop of weakness he shows to try to take it away... usually when i add in take away the pot equity, this becomes a profitable play if the opponent is in fact very tight.
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