KK vs AA, milkin AA

[bigt2k4]

NL $100 Hero has $120 Villain has $180, sorry I dunno how to work hand converter
villain is TAG and smart player
Hero is button with KK
Villain is MP open raises to $4,
Hero reraises to $12
all fold to villain who raises to $20(95% sure he has AA)
Hero calls
Flop QJ10r
Villain hesitates(99% sure he has AA) then checks
Hero bets $20 Villain calls
turn 9
villain checks Hero????
comments on flop play would also be appreciated

[Black Aces 518]

If you are 99% sure he has AA, why would you bet $20 on the flop? What do you do if he pushes?

I'd check the turn behind and snap off the river bet. If he checks the river too, I bet $40.

[Reef]

I don't particularly like betting the flop and building the pot when I know I have a drawing hand. Plus villian is probably not going to fold to a 1/2 pot bet. You have to know that Villian most likely puts you on QQ or KK (sometimes JJ). If you check the flop, I think you have a very good chance of raising him off the hand on the turn if a brick comes (representing set).

as it played, you can check the turn. And then either 2-3x raise his river bet.

[MTBlue]

Check the flop. You probably aren't folding his AA and you've got 6 outs against his hand see a turn card. When I get in this situation I always tell myself that I'm playing KK for set value and since I didn't hit a set there is no reason to bet.

Turn I bet big or small depending on how the villain thinks. If he is a macho man then a large bet (all-in or pot it) is better if he is a nit than a small bet (1/3-1/2) is better.

[beavens]

if you are drawing to only 6 outs, how are you milking HIM?

[bigt2k4]

im >90% sure he doesnt push here(fold if he does), he might reraise, and then Id push(he would fold here enuff in my mind to make the play +ev + the odds of me drawin out)

[Black Aces 518]

No way he folds if he reraises and you push. You have $80 behind after betting $20 on the flop, yes? So, even if he minraises to $40, and you push, there is $180 in the pot and it's $40 to him. You think he folds AA getting 4.5:1?

I definitely don't, but you had the read. To me, you know you are beat, but there are a not insignificant amount of cards that make you a winner. I check. If you are planning on pushing him off, the turn is better, or a bigger flop bet.

If your 99% sure he has AA, it makes absolutly no sense for you to make that bet. Your basically on the only draw that is going to save you from AA except one of your two kings left in the deck. And if you check behind it will get worse hands to try and make a play, or AA will bet harder thinking he missed a bet on the flop. Al your doing with this bet is asking to get pushed off your hand. Check behind and see what the turn brings.

[ QUOTE ]
No way he folds if he reraises and you push. You have $80 behind after betting $20 on the flop, yes? So, even if he minraises to $40, and you push, there is $180 in the pot and it's $40 to him. You think he folds AA getting 4.5:1?

I definitely don't, but you had the read. To me, you know you are beat, but there are a not insignificant amount of cards that make you a winner. I check. If you are planning on pushing him off, the turn is better, or a bigger flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What sense does it make to push, if
1) You know he's going to insta-call you
2) You have the worst hand

Please explain that one.

[wdeadwyler]

Dont be sure so villain has AA. He could have 1010-AA (Ive seen worse here), AKs, AKo, KK, AQs, AJs, who knows?? I agree AA is most likely but prob like 65-70% likely, definately nowhere near 99%. Bet 2/3 pot on turn, who knows what this chump has, and whether he will/wont call with worse hands.

Edit: Those of you who reccomend checking flop are way off here. I think if villain had AA HE would bet the flop, unless he sucks and is weak. 3/4 or pot the flop, depending on your normal bets, is optimal here.