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#21
12-12-2005, 09:54 AM
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Re: Gold
If thinking includes judgement, yes.
Listen, avoid judgements. Follow trend, avoid predictions. Note that prediction requires judgements. The typical limiting judgement is that price is "too high" when it may in fact just be getting started. A good example is Newmont Mining. It's price for many observers is "too high" yet a strong high volume close over 50+ provides a low risk entry because: 0. The stock is already trending higher. 1. A close above 50 is great because most losing players who paid 48 or more (previously, in 01/04 and 11/04) have sold, leaving only players who likely hold for much higher prices. This reduces selling pressure and tends to increase price. All the miserable people are gone. 2. A close sufficiently below 50 (3% or more) invalidates these premises and indicates an immediate sale. The downside risk is the right size (2-6% max) to participate and find out if this trend really has legs. 3. After moving higher a retest of 50 is a normal occurence (not a threat per se) and is to be expected. 
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#22
12-12-2005, 10:18 AM
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Re: Gold
Warren,
"World" by Graham is $164 on Amazon. Any way you know to access this book for far less than that? "Storage" is $95 on Amazon. Any better places to get this book? I'm Googling around looking for these in the meantime. I'd be happy to temporarily swap some books with you to gain some access to these titles; please PM me if you have an interest in this.
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#23
12-12-2005, 10:21 AM
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Re: Gold
The discussed event (NEM over 50 on a closing basis) may likely occur today, on Monday, Dec 19 2005.
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#24
12-12-2005, 10:28 AM
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Re: Gold
Why can't I use judgement? You seem to claim that its because most people's judgement is wrong. However, your method of following trends essentially just follows the net judgement of the whole market.
[ QUOTE ] 0. The stock is already trending higher. [/ QUOTE ] Fwiw, this is also the case every time a stock decreases from a price it will never reach again. I'm not saying that's the case here, but "it went up so its going to go up more" doesn't make any sense. [ QUOTE ] 1. A close above 50 is great because most losing players who paid 48 or more (previously, in 01/04 and 11/04) have sold, leaving only players who likely hold for much higher prices. This reduces selling pressure and tends to increase price. All the miserable people are gone. [/ QUOTE ] You picked 48 as an arbitrary number. If you replace it with 52 it "proves" (used in the loosest of terms) the opposite case and makes just as much (or little) sense. [ QUOTE ] 2. A close sufficiently below 50 (3% or more) invalidates these premises and indicates an immediate sale. The downside risk is the right size (2-6% max) to participate and find out if this trend really has legs. [/ QUOTE ] Not much to say here. looks like you picked a few more numbers for no particular reason (or maybe because you read them somewhere else). [ QUOTE ] 3. After moving higher a retest of 50 is a normal occurence (not a threat per se) and is to be expected. [/ QUOTE ] What does this mean? If it goes above 50 by whatever amount you deem to be sufficient then it won't go below 50? We are still talking about Newmont Mining, right? What if the dollar appreciates...a lot? I don't really or agree with anything you wrote in this post. I'm curoius to know if you do.
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#25
12-12-2005, 10:31 AM
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Re: Gold
[ QUOTE ]
The discussed event (NEM over 50 on a closing basis) may likely occur today, on Monday, Dec 19 2005. [/ QUOTE ] Ha, what makes you say this? Is it yesterday's close of $49.66 or today's pre-market trade of $50.75? Way to go, Nostradamus.
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#27
12-12-2005, 11:12 AM
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Re: Gold
You passionately disagree and I respect that. For more information, please Google "trend following" and check out the theory behind "breakout". You will likely disagree with most of it. And that's OK.
Sincerely, Dan
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#28
12-12-2005, 11:14 AM
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Re: Gold
I dont want Sniper at my table.
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#29
12-12-2005, 11:23 AM
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Re: Gold
[ QUOTE ]
what makes you say this? Is it yesterday's close of $49.66 or today's pre-market trade of $50.75? [/ QUOTE ] Both items point to a possible above-50 close today. It's an observation of a specific probability, not a prediction. Some may judge the price of NEM "too high", above 50. I view a probable close above 50 as a low-risk opportunity.
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#30
12-12-2005, 11:33 AM
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Re: Gold
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] what makes you say this? Is it yesterday's close of $49.66 or today's pre-market trade of $50.75? [/ QUOTE ] Both items point to a possible above-50 close today. It's an observation of a specific probability, not a prediction. Some may judge the price of NEM "too high", above 50. I view a probable close above 50 as a low-risk opportunity. [/ QUOTE ] Just so we're clear, are you saying you'd prefer to buy this stock for $50 as opposed to $49?
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