Hand reading 201, part 1

[BobboFitos]

6max game, playing 5handed atm. Hero has 550$, Villain has hero covered. Hero has been very LAG, but hasn't had to showdown much. Villain has been tight, was sitting there before hero arrived, and won a big pot to get his stack with a slowplayed set. 2-4 NL.

Hero opens for the pot (14) on the button, SB (Villain) calls, BB folds.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (32)

Villain leads for 15, Hero makes it 52 total, Villain calls.

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (144)

Villain leads for 105.

So, part 1 -
a. What is Villains most likely type of hand?
b. What are the likely hands in Villains' hand range?
c. What hands does Villain need to call a push?

Part 2 will come tomorrow, with what hero did, and obviously, what he had! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Also, I'll reply with my answers in a separate post, hopefully they wont dillute any other replies. And if people find this post boring, I wont bump it tomorrow, I guess [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[BobboFitos]

For those who read in flat mode, dont look down here if you are going to answer part 1!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
a. What is Villains most likely type of hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

With a small flop lead, but call, then a fairly decent sized stop and go, to me it seems like a one pair hand trying to protect vs a multitude of draws the Hero LAG can have.

[ QUOTE ]
b. What are the likely hands in Villains' hand range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, preflop he's fairly tight but he's calling a steal raise from a LAG oop. At this point I would narrow his hand to something playable, but nothing monstrous - I'd expect a reraise to help define Hero's hand etc. etc. So namely a small pair, mid pair, perhaps some broadways, connectors, etc. So things "playable" that arent whirlwinds.

His weakish lead seems either like a draw, a big hand going for a 3bet, or a tester with something such as an underpair or weak top pair.

Villain called hte raise, though, which would lead me to think AX[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], XX[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 45, AQ, KQ, QJ, QT. Maybe in that order.

When Villain leads out on the turn (stop & go) He's leading out for about 2/3rd pot, which means he's uncomfortable either calling a bet, or doesn't want to c/r. It's not small enough to smell of a draw (or weak lead) so IMO it's most likely KQ or QT. Followed shortly by something like JT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a similar hand which picked up outs. (45[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], etc.)

[ QUOTE ]
c. What hands does Villain need to call a push?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he needs to have QJ. I dont see QQ (reraise pf) and for a set, thats a weird, weird way to play it. (I'd expect checkraise on turn, or a bigger turn bet, or a flop 3bet) Unfortunately if he has a draw and gets pushed on, he wont have odds to call, which is another reason this bet by a draw is not good.

Villain could have AQ or KQ, but it would be terribly hard to call a push with those hands.

[orange]

Edit: misread question 1.

1. villan has either a vulnerable 1 pair/2 pair on a draw heavy board. A set may play this way, but playing stop-n-go= strange.

2. I think villan's hand range includes 22,33,AQ-KQ (I have a hard time believing he will stop-n-go with these, but..),QJ, maybe JJ (although most re-raise against a LAG), maybe something like a 109[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I think villan re-raises with JJ-AA PF.

3. I think villan needs at least 2-pair to call here. QJ is the least I would consider. If hero is good, then villan will realize that hero is thinking on the 3rd level (Hero makes villan think what hero may have, or what villan percieves hero's hand is).

Edit: good to know that some/alot of our answers are the same.

[The_Bends]

A) Looks like a set to me, his bets suggest he wants you in the hand and it fits perfectly with how he's played the hand so far. AJs also looks possible

B)QQ, 33, 22, JJ, AKs, AJs, AQ?, QJ?, 45s??, KK??, AA??? Seems like 45s would play the flop stronger. AQ probably wouldn't lead the turn, QJ seems like an odd preflop call. AA and KK seem unlicky without a preflop raise but not impossible. All the rest of the hand I think are plausable.

C)So pot would be 350 with 400 to call. Given those odds, AJs can't call because he can eliminate you having a flush draw. AKs can't call either and AQ has to fold, 45s just can't call. All the sets can call KK probably has to fold while AA can call. QJ can also call.

[PoBoy321]

Villain: QJ

Hero:45 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

a. I am guessing some kind of flopped draw that improved on the turn. Second most likely type of hand I would say is top pair, that didn't want to face a semi-bluff allin from you on the flop so he waited for a safe turn card.

b. AQ/KQ, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] With maybe QJs/22/33/JJ/A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

c. Well, given he's getting alomst 2:1 on the call, he will probably call with top pair hands, and he is just barely short of the necessary odds to be calling with his super draws listed above if he thinks his outs to a TPTK+ hand are all clean. He should call with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] because if there is any chance you are bluffing this will be profitable.

[orange]

Bump for Bobbo.

[TheRegulat0r]

b is in order of likelihood.

a. AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
b. AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], KQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], JJ, QJ, AQo, KQo 33, 22, QQ, KK, AA.
c. QJ, QQ, JJ, 33, 22.

I think the turn hit him, but given your LAG image I might be giving him entirely too much credit for a hand. It's hard to say without knowing what kind of tight player he is.

[BobboFitos]

Thanks for the bump Orange -

Anyway, Hero moves in. (ta-da)
1. What is Hero's "most likely hand" ?
2. How often (rate a %) this push be called?

I'll post results tonight.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
....for a set, thats a weird, weird way to play it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain. I don't see why you assume he's going to checkraise with a set most of the time when he has no reason to believe you're going to bet the turn. Your flop raise could easily be spades, a straight draw, or a combo draw that will check behind on the turn and take the free river.