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#3
10-04-2005, 01:14 AM
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Re: Liveblogging a HU match.
I hope you're making Mark drink beer. Him throwing all that math at you has to be -EV.
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#4
10-04-2005, 02:41 AM
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Re: Liveblogging a HU match.
[ QUOTE ]
I hope you're making Mark drink beer. Him throwing all that math at you has to be -EV. [/ QUOTE ] T is a much better player than I am, probably more so HU. I'm just a geek donk with too much education.
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#5
10-04-2005, 01:00 PM
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Re: Liveblogging a HU match.
I'll post a more complete hand history later, but some quick stats that might be of interest:
T: raised 40 times (67%) from the button, folded 20 times (33%). G: raised 31 times (52%) from the button, folded 29 times (48%). (No limping!) In the big blind vs. a raise: T: folded 14 times (45%), called 12 times (39%), reraised 5 times (16%). G: folded 20 times (50%), called 16 times (40%), reraised 4 times (10%). T's HU aggression shows here, I think. I think my defending percentage is about where it should be against an aggressive raiser. Consistently defending less often than 50% is bad in a 1-chip/2-chip game like we were playing... do you see why? Exercise 1: Work out how often you should defend in a 1-chip/3-chip game. Exercise 2: Given an opponent (T) who defends 55% of the time, what percentage of the time should Hero (G) be raising the first round?
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#6
10-04-2005, 04:47 PM
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Re: Liveblogging a HU match.
Here's a hand from last night, number 104 in our match. G has the button.
G gets 4478A and raises, T calls. T draws 3, G discards A4 and gets K7. T checks, G checks. I felt that the odds were good that T had caught up, and that any 2-card draw he has is better than mine. I would bet with an (unpaired) 9 or lower. My two paired cards help marginally here. T raps pat, G draws 64 (87644). T bets, G folds. T's perspective: <font color="white"> I make a loose defense with 54 and draw 239. Mark draws two but I whiff my checkraise attempt. I'm pat, he draws two again and folds the third round, showing 87644. </font> Good? Bad? Indifferent?
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#7
10-04-2005, 06:14 PM
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Re: Liveblogging a HU match.
[ QUOTE ]
Here's a hand from last night, number 104 in our match. G has the button. G gets 4478A and raises, T calls. T draws 3, G discards A4 and gets K7. T checks, G checks. I felt that the odds were good that T had caught up, and that any 2-card draw he has is better than mine. I would bet with an (unpaired) 9 or lower. My two paired cards help marginally here. T raps pat, G draws 64 (87644). T bets, G folds. T's perspective: <font color="white"> I make a loose defense with 54 and draw 239. Mark draws two but I whiff my checkraise attempt. I'm pat, he draws two again and folds the third round, showing 87644. </font> Good? Bad? Indifferent? [/ QUOTE ] I think you are 100% on point with your check. He will have improved by 1 card at least 50% if not greater of the time. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
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#8
10-04-2005, 06:55 PM
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Re: Liveblogging a HU match.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Here's a hand from last night, number 104 in our match. G has the button. G gets 4478A and raises, T calls. T draws 3, G discards A4 and gets K7. T checks, G checks. I felt that the odds were good that T had caught up, and that any 2-card draw he has is better than mine. I would bet with an (unpaired) 9 or lower. My two paired cards help marginally here. T raps pat, G draws 64 (87644). T bets, G folds. T's perspective: <font color="white"> I make a loose defense with 54 and draw 239. Mark draws two but I whiff my checkraise attempt. I'm pat, he draws two again and folds the third round, showing 87644. </font> Good? Bad? Indifferent? [/ QUOTE ] I think you are 100% on point with your check. He will have improved by 1 card at least 50% if not greater of the time. TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well, let's see here... I know T has two low cards, and I've see 44778KA. That leaves 43 cards in the deck. T's best case for improving is holding 47, so any 23568 and maybe 9 is good (23 cards), worst case is having 23, so a 45678 or possibly 9 is good (19 cards). Thus, given what I know, T will brick on all three cards somewhere between (24/43)*(23/42)*(22/41) = 16% and (20/43)*(19/42)*(18/41) = 9% of the time. Since there are only 4 SB in the pot, trying to take it down here is not profitable. (No better than 5.25:1 odds of doing so.) If he has improved to a 2-card draw, what can he have that I'm obviously ahead of? Not much, by my estimation: 985 (very rough defense, might fold) 984 983 982 97w 9ww (some of these matchups are interesting, T could be ahead.) 876 (unlikely) 875 Compare with 87w 86w 8ww 76w 7ww 6ww www + all one-card draws + all pat hands The three card nine draws are nonobvious, I might have to think a bit more about them. ETA: of course, the combination of folding equity and whatever equity I do have against T may put me over 50%. But I'm comfortable with a check here.
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#9
10-04-2005, 07:10 PM
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Re: Liveblogging a HU match.
I would almost certainly fold 98x to a bet, FWIW.
I think most of the time when you have a two-card draw and the opponent draws three, it's not good to autobet, especially if you have position. In fact I think Mark bets here substantially too often, and it's part of why I felt comfortable defending with some pretty crappy three-card draws. The vast majority of situations I've identified where betting a card ahead is bad are when you've drawn 2, villain has drawn 3, and you either improve by one card or don't improve at all.
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