ITM Hand

[microbet]

He has to be calling with some pretty weak shat for this push to be -$EV.

It's pretty hard to guess a range for a guy who probably wants to be tight, but is pissed at you.

[Newt_Buggs]

I don't see how you can fold here unless the guy is a maniac. Saying that you don't need 600 chips is a bogus argument, those chips are important.

[curtains]

Very very clear push IMO.

[ChuckNorris]

I am assuming here that these are stack sizes before posting.

My instincts told me to push, and I voted for it.

Then I thought that a reasonable average calling range for the villain could be something like A7, KJ, QJ, 66 (16,8% of hands). Could easily be a bit looser or a bit tighter, of course.

According to my windows notepad + poker calculator ICM calculations this would be a +0,02 equity of the prizepool push given my approximated calling range. Feel free to check out the correctness of my results if you have the sit'n'go analyzer which I really need to purchase.

Edit: I guess the given calling range is donkishly loose, but so are the 50+5'ers who think they are good [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[ChuckNorris]

curtains said:
[ QUOTE ]
Very very clear push IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What kind of a calling range would you put the villain on, may I ask?

[SuitedSixes]

What difference does 600 chips make on the bubble when you have the chip lead? Are you going to be able to lose one extra coin flip when it comes down to HU because of it? 3 Handed you are concerned with chips in blocks of thousands, not hundreds. HU you are concerned with chips in terms of blocks of 2500s, not hundreds.

With the chip lead you have to goals:

1) Get HU
2) Get HU with more than 5000 chips.

You are looking to get #2 to make a mistake against you . . . a mistake like pushing 83o.

[Newt_Buggs]

Does having more chips give you a significant strategic advantage heads up? If so how? I don't mean that to sound condescending, I really am interested.

The way that I see it, every chip increases your chance of winning HU, and 600 is a lot of chips. Furthermore, we're not talking about just stealing 600 chips, but a 1200 chip swing. Folding this makes you 1200 chips poorer in relation to him than pushing. If my stack was injected with 1200 chips every time I got HU it would do wonders to my ROI. Given that he will probably only call around 10% of the time and you can still suckout 25% of the time it seems like folding is giving up a lot here.

[zkzkz]

I don't really get it. If it were heads-up just you and him with those stacks and these blinds, would you push with 83o? If you're going to push with 83o I guess that means you'll just push any two cards every hand? That doesn't sound right.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really get it. If it were heads-up just you and him with those stacks and these blinds, would you push with 83o? If you're going to push with 83o I guess that means you'll just push any two cards every hand? That doesn't sound right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the stack sizes and position...put yourself in the BB's shoes.

Yugoslav
Who still isn't sure what the best play is here...[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
You are looking to get #2 to make a mistake against you . . . a mistake like pushing 83o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaning you are prepared to call #2 with what?