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Old 11-15-2005, 06:13 AM
Heimdal Heimdal is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 25
Default Re: Difficult AQ hand...maybe?

Ok. I’m not sure if this is what you are talking about but I will try. If hero pots the flop there will be $1K in the pot with $1100 left.
With 14 outs hero’s equity is 32% if he goes all in and MP calls = autopush. Let’s be more pessimistic. Sometimes hero will be drawing dead, sometimes a Q will be good. 11 outs on average. 25% equity when called.

Using this formula:

F = (B - E) / (Pf - E)

where

F = break-even probability of opponent folding
B = amount of hero's bet (or, if raising, amount of call + raise)
Pf = pot size when opponent folds, including hero's last bet
E = equity in pot when called (in terms of $s, not %) )

E = $3200 * 0.25 = $800
F = (1100-800) / (2100-800) = 23 %

If MP folds 23 % hero breaks even. Still an easy decision with AZK’s read.
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