getting Too Fancy in the 3/6?

[coolhanded]

Sorry to waste all that space, now I'm going to use more. I don't understand what you mean. If he reraises, the A didn't hurt him----that's information. If he calls, he doesn't have AA (or probably AK), which leaves KK as the only better hand he could have----that's information. If he folds, you win the pot and feel very smart. I do like Spydog's point that this could be and expensive move on the turn-----leading the turn with a bet might be good enough.

[Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
nice turn bet [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Idiotic. Assuming it was me.

[J.R.]

<font color="red"> Agreed. Idiotic. Assuming it was me. </font>

I think it was bad regardless of who it was

[Donk]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red"> Agreed. Idiotic. Assuming it was me. </font>

I think it was bad regardless of who it was

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, what if villain has AA?

[J.R.]

think about how likely each one of thsoe hands are mathematically, and what each one of them does if you raise, and why, in light of opponents range of hands check-raise is superior to bet, chekc-call and check-fold? I/m not trying to be a jerk but trying to encourage you to think for yourself

[J.R.]

that's not the same as betting the turn with KK, regardless of who is doing the betting now is it?

[philnewall]

I also felt like if I was ahead, my turn c/r would fold him, which couldn't hurt, and if I'm 3-bet I can fold there, costing same no. of bets as if I'd called down on turn and river.

[Carmine]

Let's see if I can grasp what JR is trying to say.

[ QUOTE ]
use your range of hands to estimate the frequency he has KK and QQ as well as the frequency he has something else.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if we assign Villian a PF capping range of AA-TT and AK
then I believe JR is trying to say we are not ahead of much.
We are behind 24 combinations (AA,KK,AK,TT), tie with one (QQ), and ahead of 6(JJ).

[ QUOTE ]
then estimate what you earn if KK and QQ always bet this turn (a good player shouldn't) and folds to your check-raise

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what % to assign here. Are we saying a good player would never (should never) bet this turn? Is a good player in essence giving up as soon as the A falls or is he just not allowing himself to be put into a C/R situation.

[ QUOTE ]
and also estimate what you lose to all the better hands that don't fold to the turn check-raise and compare.


[/ QUOTE ]

After the turn Ace and C/R there are 18 combinations (AA,AK,TT) that are not folding and are likely 3-betting. 6 combinations (JJ) that are folding or should, leaving 7 combinations (KK,QQ) that we assign folding, I don't know, 50% of the time. So the final tally is 21.5 combinations not folding and 9.5 combinations folding (3.5 incorrectly so).

So 69.3% of the time this line fails and 30.6% it works but only 11% of the time does Villian fold incorrectly.

The EV of this move is then:
(.30)(9)+(.70)(-2)= +1.3

Am I even close here. I suck at this math stuff.

[philnewall]

Can't really confirm this, but it's good that my play seems to have been +ev.

[adamstewart]

3-betting the flop would have gained useful information here, as well as possibly being for value.

3-bet the flop.



Fold the turn. You're only beating JJ. (If you want to make "a move" here, simply LEAD the turn... it has the same effect and it's cheaper. Further, players are morely likely to call the check-raise because they've already invested a bet on this street).


Note: 3-betting the flop would have changed the way the rest of the hand was played.



Adam