PP 15/30 River Decision

philnewall · #1 03-11-2005, 01:19 PM

After it was checked round on the river it felt like i'd missed a value bet. I was worried that the player who'd been calling all raises was sitting on a flush draw, however, if he didn't have the flush on the river i was hoping that the player behind me would bet, and i could get him to call 1 bet with a weak hand so I could overcall.

So who plays this one differently?

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $15.
2 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (9 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB calls, BB calls, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB folds, BB calls, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (22.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 22.50 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Jd Ac (two pair, aces and jacks).
Hero has Qh Kh (straight, ace high).
Button has Jh Ts (two pair, jacks and tens).
Outcome: Hero wins 22.50 BB.

goofball · #2 03-11-2005, 01:32 PM

I think you definietly missed a bet. YOu gotta bet, get another one out of the button and give the BB a chance to bluff checkraise you. If he has the flush god bless him but I don't see him going for a checkraise. He expects the flush card to tighten everyones [censored] so if he has it he'll more likely bet and if he doesn't he'll more likely check hoping for a free showdown. YOu gave it to him.

URMeowed · #3 03-11-2005, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
and give the BB a chance to bluff checkraise you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

Meow.

goofball · #4 03-11-2005, 01:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and give the BB a chance to bluff checkraise you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh?

Meow.

[/ QUOTE ]

what?

you also give button a chance to bluff raise you

URMeowed · #5 03-11-2005, 01:55 PM

Sure a flush draw out of the BB is a possibility but this is limit holdem. All he can raise you is another big bet. It's a lock you are getting called by the button unless he was jamming it up with top pair and the nut flush draw. Same situation, this is limit poker...you can only lose another big bet. It's not the end of the world.

[ QUOTE ]
however, if he didn't have the flush on the river i was hoping that the player behind me would bet, and i could get him to call 1 bet with a weak hand so I could overcall.

[/ QUOTE ]

And what do you do if the button bets and the BB now check raises and it's two cold back to you? Now here's a situation where goofball mentioned earlier. I don't think BB could check raise bluff two players but I have seen it done in this situation where he could squeeze you out with a good hand that can't beat a straight and that's exactly the hand he had. Betting the river protects you from getting moved off the hand.

Meow.

URMeowed · #6 03-11-2005, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you also give button a chance to bluff raise you

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it's not bluff raising when you have a hand but I agree they will raise you in spots that after you call and take down the pot, you just shake your head in disbelief.

Meow.

philnewall · #7 03-11-2005, 03:12 PM

Good points, let me explain a bit more what I was thinking. With the button capping the turn I expected him to follow through with a river bet, so I thought that by checking and calling I would win as much as by betting. I was also worried that if I bet and the player behind me raised I would push the other player off a lot of hands, except for the flush, which would probably 3-bet and cost me more.

So by my check/call I was planning on winning at least 2 bets when I was ahead, as much as betting would likely get me, and would save me money when I was behind.

URMeowed · #8 03-11-2005, 03:18 PM

If BB took all that heat with a made hand, he's not going to now muck for two cold on the river.

Meow.

steveyz · #9 03-11-2005, 03:26 PM

Although it is very possible that BB hit his flush draw on the river, you are almost assuredly beating the button (unless he also has KQ or something like A9 clubs) and you are missing too many bets by checking here. There are many other hands besides a flush that BB could have that he will call a bet with. You can't depend on Button betting the river as he's very unlikely to have a flush draw so he'd be as scared of BB having a flush as you. Letting button bet so that BB only has to call 1 bet instead of possibly 2 doesn't make sense because if he's been calling all bets so far, it's very unlikely he'd call 1 river bet but fold to 2.

CanKid · #10 03-11-2005, 03:36 PM

I would never check this river