PP 15/30 Blind Defence

[philnewall]

I don't see having the BB coming along being advantageous. You'll be out of position in a 3-way pot, and the preflop raiser will be betting through you giving the BB optimum position. Sure, in a hot and cold simulation I am behind by a few percentage points against a rag ace or king, but surely I make that up by taking the initiative away from them.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
Results:

I check folded the turn and he showed king-9.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand the fold. You are getting 8.5:1 to call with a 5-outer and some chance you are ahead.

[W. Deranged]

I definitely see your point. A raise certainly buys some "control equity" (is there a real word for this term... I made that up awhile ago to refer to the extra equity you gain by taking the initiative with a raise). The problem, though, is that the amount of control equity you are going to gain here is hugely player dependent; if your opponent is an aggressive, attacking, or loose player, you may in fact gain very little. In this case, your opponent was exactly the sort of player who will NOT give up a lot in control equity (he went nuts with K9!!!).

I really don't see that having the BB around is that bad. Driving him out certainly increases your chances of winning, but your hand has a lot going for it. Specifically, your hand is such that a pre-flop three bet will likely force the BB to fold a lot of hands he would have come along with which you are in fact ahead of (even dominating... like J10, J9s, Q9s, 10 8s, etc...) and might not force him to dump many of the hands you are behind and want him to fold (you may get out random A and K high hands, though they might not even call 1, but may not get out hands like KQ, A10, K10s, QJs which have you dominated). So, I wonder if having the BB around isn't that bad.

There is also the protected pot consideration. Namely, allowing the BB in, though you give up equity, helps to keep the hand a little more "sane." The CO is less likely to get crazy (as he did) with two players in the pot, and so you may decrease your chance of making a bad mistake.

Lastly, one thing to consider (this may be the one that pushes it over the edge for me) is that you may be able to force out the BB on the flop anyway, after he's invested a bet! If you hit any kind of hand or draw, you are very likely to get in a flop check-raise, forcing the BB to call two cold anyway and regaining any control equity you might have lost pre-flop.

Just some thoughts.

[steveyz]

I like cold calling in this situation pre-flop and check-raising the flop a lot.
Given your line I'd fold the turn. It could be an overplayed 77/88/99 or a monkey going nuts with nothing, but I think you are behind enough of the time to warrant a fold knowing you'll have to put in 2 BBs to see a showdown.