From ZeeJustin's web site...steal into KJ8 board?

rydazzle · #1 07-31-2005, 04:13 PM

Reading the poker articles, specifically "inside my tournament game" on www.zeejustin.com, I came across this:

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During 75/150 blinds, a player 4 off the button opened for 450. He had a stack of 5500. I called on the button with 99 and a stack of 5k. The flop came KJ8. He checked. Very few players will check this flop with a hand that hit the flop. It is very likely that he has a pocket pair lower than jacks, or AQ. I bet 700 on the flop. The fact that I had 99 here is irrelevant. I will make this play with any two cards. This is a very standard hand. Basically, when someone raises preflop and checks a flop like this, it is usually because they missed and are afraid the flop hit you. My read was correct and he folded.

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I am wondering what makes this texture plus the check a likely sign of weakness? Villians range of raising hands from MP is large: PPs to ~77, AT, KJ. Can someone elaborate on the range villian puts us on such that a check is his best play? If I am in villian's spot I see the call PF as mid PPs most likely...fear the set of 8's or KQ but not enough to make a continuation bet. Unless we are seen as LAG KJ, QJ is unlikely especially at this buy-in? I need a lesson...plug the leak.

R

Sponger15SB · #2 07-31-2005, 04:15 PM

ZJ's blog entry = -EV

rydazzle · #3 07-31-2005, 05:28 PM

I take it this is the concensus?

The Don · #4 07-31-2005, 05:30 PM

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I take it this is the concensus?

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No this is a good play... ZJ had his opponent on a weak hand and bet to push him off. As he said... the fact that he had 99 was irrelevant.

Sponger15SB · #5 07-31-2005, 05:34 PM

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I take it this is the concensus?

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I'm talking about the actual blog entry, not the play itself.

curtains · #6 07-31-2005, 05:42 PM

Personally I don't think that revealing a few thought processes that you go through while you play is particularly -EV at all.

Everyone, or at least ZeeJustin, who does so has control over what they get out to the public and they probably understand what things they think are okay to let people know about and what ideas aren't.

citanul · #7 07-31-2005, 05:50 PM

curtains,

i believe sponger was saying that reading the entry is -ev in general, not that posting it was.

citanul

PrayingMantis · #8 07-31-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am wondering what makes this texture plus the check a likely sign of weakness? Villians range of raising hands from MP is large: PPs to ~77, AT, KJ. Can someone elaborate on the range villian puts us on such that a check is his best play? If I am in villian's spot I see the call PF as mid PPs most likely...fear the set of 8's or KQ but not enough to make a continuation bet. Unless we are seen as LAG KJ, QJ is unlikely especially at this buy-in? I need a lesson...plug the leak.

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I think you are over-complicating it. Villain raised PF, and now he checks. Checking = not betting. Unless he is trapping here, he is simply weak (even if he IS trapping, he is trying to represent weakness by checking). This is common-sense, it's not some deep poker wisdom. When someone shows weakness, there's a good enough chance you can take the pot from him, that's all. The specific texture of the flop might help you decide if there's a good enough chance he missed it, so you have some more reasons to believe you can try and make a move for the pot.

curtains · #9 07-31-2005, 05:59 PM

Weird....okay I thought that at first but changed my mind after his last response.

rydazzle · #10 07-31-2005, 06:00 PM

I dont think I asked my question well as folks are missing the point. My question is in general about PFRers checking a KJ8 board HU showing weakness...why is KJ8 scary to the missing PFRer and not to the stealer? i.e. if I missed with KJ8 flop, I'd cont bet b/c of the K. If checked to me I'd think trap...I want to know if this is a leak.