$55 sng ROI question...

[DonButtons]

Yeah, I really have good table selection skills. I really avoid playing aganist any good players, anyone on the leaderboard, good multi table players, or 2+2ers. But sometimes they jump my tables at the last second. I hate it, as its prob. negative ev. But as long as Im on there right, I dont care. Some people disagree, and like the good players on there right so they have position, but I disagree for sngs. Its basically playing tight early, and stealing blinds later, and who else do you want on the blinds when your on the button then good tight players.

So far its not changing a bit-yesterday played 18 sngs-$2500 profit

Only problem I have now, is trying to open up new tables while Im playing heads up, or Im in the money in another table, and opening up new tables and dodging good players.

[raptor517]

sorry, but i have to call bullshit on you. no way u can achieve such high results. the numbers behind it are impossible. it WOULD not be possible to achieve an ROI so high. period.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry, but i have to call bullshit on you. no way u can achieve such high results. the numbers behind it are impossible. it WOULD not be possible to achieve an ROI so high. period.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. It certainly is possible for an excellent player to achieve 15% first place, 15% second place, 15% third place, which is an EV of $85 or 39.5% ROI.

[UMTerp]

You really have to play a LOT of SNGs before your ROI numbers mean a whole lot. I'm getting in the thousands, and I still see crazy things happen to my numbers after especially good/bad runs.

I pretty much split my time between the $27 and $60 Turbos on Stars, and I think good long term goals for me are 25% for the $27's and 20% for the $60's. Which is fine - I 8-table them four and four, so that's $75/hour.

Though the last two days, I've played 33 $27's and 32 $60's. If you only play a few SNGs a day, that could take you a month to play 65 SNGs, and you could be wondering what's up with your numbers. "Oh, I'm the greatest thing ever!" or "What's wrong with my game?" It's usually somewhere in between. My records for that last two days (30+ at each level): 1.0% at the $27's and 70.2% at the $60's. I know neither of those numbers will continue though - you just have to get in the right mindset about it.

And FWIW, I can't imagine ~35% is sustainable at the $200's, but who knows... I guess Gigabet would be the right one to answer that.

[Mr_J]

Played 15 $50+5s today and although I hit 12/15 OTM, gotta say that these tables don't seem harder than the lower tables. Maybe the good players are a little better, but there are still so many terrible players up there.

A quick review of my 12/15 OTMs:
3 AK lost to Ax
A8s vs J5s

Got called on a large river raise (I had 2p) to someone chasing a straight (made on river)

AJ vs AQ

Ax vs lower Ax

Got caught stealing twice and had inferior hand (easy steals, just unlucky they hit something they liked).

1 pressed wrong button, called someone I knew had AA or KK.

1 missed the possible flush, had AA.

I beat a AK with Ax in one.

Funny that nearly all my hands contain aces.

[DonButtons]

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sorry, but i have to call bullshit on you. no way u can achieve such high results. the numbers behind it are impossible. it WOULD not be possible to achieve an ROI so high. period.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, after I'm done with my session today around 2-6am est I will post a screen shot of my poker tracker. I dont understand why its impossible, or maybe Im a poker genius, which im clearly not, as I still make a couple mistakes here and there. But I go over them, and try to avoid them each night.

My finsh detail, is close to 15% for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

Its exactly, 1st-15%, 2nd-13.13%, 3rd-16.88%

[M.B.E.]

Don -- if the other guy thought you were lying before, he'll probably think you faked the PokerTracker screenshot. Don't worry about trying to "prove" you're telling the truth, there's no point.

You said your 38% ROI was over about 200 SNGs? Your results might be anomalous at that sample size (i.e. your theoretical ROI might be less but you've been exceeding it due to luck), although as I stated before I believe it would be possible for an excellent player to maintain that ROI in the long term.

That question would be interesting to discuss -- whether a 38% ROI at the $215s is theoretically possible in the long term. The other question, about whether a particular poster is telling the truth about his results, really is not very interesting to discuss.

[raptor517]

sorry, i didnt realize the sample size was only 200. it is definitely possible over this short run. i take back what i said. sorry for stirring up controversy. however, over the long term, 1500+, i dont think that 38% is sustainable. the number of people that know about the blind stealing now makes it much more difficult than it was over the past 6 months or so. the difficulty in the 200s has gone up so much in the last 2-3 months, that it makes a 15% roi very difficult to maintain. someone should start up a thread for the 200s, and get a good discussion going on the possibility of maintaining an roi above 30%

[The once and future king]

Why are we debating ROI after just 200 SNG's anyway. Its meaningless. However I would lay money that his ROI drops over the next 800 at which point we will have some meaningfull data.

[Prickly Pete]

Raptor, you are right on in my opinion. Don's numbers are impressive, but any good 215 player has had 200 tourney stretches like that.

If the 215 game stays as it has, I'd go on record as saying 38% ROI, or anywhere near, is impossible LONG TERM. I think most would agree that ZeeJustin, Strassa and Daliman are all pretty reliable sources as to what can be made in these games and I believe they've estimated the top at around 12-15%. And I believe that to be true as well.

One possibility however, is that the introduction of the Steps may make the 215 more profitable - but still not 38% profitable long term.