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#32
04-03-2005, 10:07 AM
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Re: redsox on opening day.... sunday +180 !!!!
[ QUOTE ]
+190 is a definite possibility [/ QUOTE ] It was +190 yesterday afternoon on WSEX and I grabbed it. I just checked though it's back to +180 there right now. 
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#33
04-03-2005, 10:09 AM
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Re: redsox on opening day.... sunday +180 !!!!
Two things. One, my 8.32 runs estimate was probably a little low. I used projected runs for each team this season to estimate the quality of each offense. Those projections assume there will be injuries, and each team is healthy now.
Second, even if they were to average, say, 8.7 runs a game, I'm not sure that they don't score 8 or fewer at least half the time. I'm not sure exactly what the distribution of run scoring given that an average of X amount of runs will be scored, but given that the most that it can go UNDER 8.7 runs is 7.7, while it is not uncommon to see scores 8 or more runs above the projections, it makes sense that perhaps there are more 8 or below games to make up for the 17+ run games.
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#34
04-03-2005, 10:43 AM
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Re: redsox on opening day.... sunday +180 !!!!
i don't like the sox even at +200, but there's no way betting on nyy can be +EV? i mean if you do you automatically go to hell when you die if you even still have a soul, right?
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#35
04-03-2005, 10:51 PM
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Re: redsox on opening day.... sunday +180 !!!!
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't there a profitable trend to bet against the winner of the World Series/Super Bowl, etc. on opening day? [/ QUOTE ] So far 6-1 yanks. Top 8, starting to rain slightly. <font color="blue"> EDIT: 8-1 yanks. Bottom 8 - The over is now locked up.</font> Hope you went with me here. Although, I would have never layed that much wood on opening day!
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