Move from 3/6 to 6/12?

[Chris Swiedler]

I've been playing live 3/6 for about a year and keeping good stats for 4 months. Where I play, the rake is $3 every round (1 small bet), approximately $12 per hour. The game is loose and generally passive, and I play it as well as anyone else at these tables. Over the last 4 months, I've lost an average of $4.50 (1.5 SB) per hour. Compared to the rake of $12, I think I'm doing reasonably well.

The 6/12 game is also $3 per round, so it's .5 small bets instead of 1. I've played it a little; it's definitely a tighter and more aggressive game, and I would consider myself a little below average. I'm comfortable at the 6/12 tables, though I'm hesitant to play it because of the double stakes involved.

I was hoping to play 3/6 until I could start winning, and build a bankroll that way before moving to 6/12. I'm wondering, however, if it wouldn't be smarter to move to the higher game where the effect of the rake is less.

If I'm losing 1.5 SB per hour with a 4 SB/hr rake, then I'm winning about 2.5 SB from other players. If I could manage 1.5 SB (from other players) at 6/12, where the rake is 2 SB per hour, I'd be netting a loss of .5 SB ($3) compared to my current 1.5 SB ($4).

Does this logic make any sense, or am I better off playing 3/6 until I can win there? Is a 4 SB / hr rake particularly large?

[eric5148]

How many hours have you played this 3/6 game? I highly doubt you could've played enough hands to get an accurate measure of your long term win/loss rate.

[Chris Swiedler]

In four months I've logged 179 hours.

At what point do people consider that they've played enough to make a decent analysis of their game?

[QBert]

If the game is loose-passive and you are unable to beat it for at least 1BB/hr after the rake, I would work hard on your game before playing any more even at this limit (you have already lost over $800 and may as well experiment at a lower cost). Read these forums, post hands, play micro limit online, read several good poker books. At 179 hours you have probably logged about 8000 hands (do your tables have auto-shufflers? If not, it's more like 5500 hands) which is pretty low for statistical significance. So it's hard to say whether you are a winning or a losing player. But I would say given the table conditions the latter is more likely. So study the game. For the love of God, do not move to a more expensive and skilled game before you have improved yours.

Disclaimer: It may be that you are running bad. I could be completely wrong, it's hard to say without seeing some hands. This is just my initial reaction from reading your post: If you are losing, do not move up in limits.

[Schmed]

Generally when I moved up in limits I started by taking shots. Play in the game if there's a seat while you're waiting for your 3-6 seat. Give it a go. The game will be different with more players who will punish you when you make a mistake but the only way you're going to get the confidence to play in the game is to do it. If you're bankroll takes a hit just fall back.

[That guy]

why not play online if you want to improve your game with less rake? you can play way more hands per $ of rake... also, you can get rake-back where you can get 25-30% of your 'rake paid' back to you at end of month.

I play offline once in a while and yes, it is a much softer game... but online is soooo much more efficient.

[Emoney]

while it doesn't help, the big rake is not the reason you're losing. it's pretty faulty to say, i can't beat this game, but i can beat a level up because the relative rake is lower. contrary to popular belief, you can beat the rake at live 3/6 as long as your toke isn't out of hand. you can't make a living at it, but it's beatable. that said, if you've got the money play 6/12.

[thejameser]

if you have a year of 3/6 under your belt and you have studied your game, you said you felt comfortable at 6/12 so do it. the main thing is you are generally against better players so the A9s that outkicked your opponents A4o won't happen. realize what you are up against and adjust strategy accordingly(not to say there are not weak players at 6/12, also, just not as many so you have to find ways to isolate them, get heads up and make $$). my next concern would be bankroll, you need to be able to absorb much bigger losses at 6/12. if it is big enough(200-300bb) or steadily replenishable it won't be an issue. don't they have a 4/8 you can go to?

[That guy]

1 huge difference I have learned at 6/12 is that table selection is important... doesn't matter at 3/6 but is the difference between winning and breaking even at 6/12...

6/12 gets some real players mixed in with serious donkeys... Look around the table and find at least 2 donkeys. If it isn't obvious who the donks are, move on...

[Schmed]

absolutely...I think if you're a b&m guy you have to play online because it's such a higher level at the lower limits. 1-2 online plays like 6-12 at a b&m.

One thing the low limits and even online to some extent doesn't have is that feeling of actually spending your money....kind of like the difference between using cash and an atm card.... it's the same thing but one of them is more in your face....