(55) Donking it up with JJ

[citanul]

most players who will call with aa here preflop will call with kk too. that doesn't mean it's right, in fact, it's horribly wrong, but i'm just saying.

i don't think that the player in the co seat will fold jj+ on this board to your push. that seems more than just a little iffy.

i think your best guess is very, very wrong.

if you want to start imposing some super rationality on him, look at this whole thing from his side:

he reraised with something behind your smoooth call. then the other player came in, making a big pot, and the action's back to you. at this point, basically no one continues to trap in your spot, so you'd push KK (because you're not afraid of aces) and you push AA, and you probably even push QQ at this point. so on the flop, you can have medium pairs up to JJ or QQ, and he can have AK, maybe AQ, TT+, and maybe some other random hands, but who knows. I'm thinking the most likely thing you got him to fold was AK, honestly.

i think that 0 players at the 55s fold to your overpush with KK or AA, and possibly 5% fold QQ here.

the whole logic of "but i'm the only one who can kill him here" is really offset by "but i have aces and i'll have 8 bajillion chips when i win."

c

[ QUOTE ]
OK, so here's why I did this.

1) UTG is likely to have AK/AQ/other crap rather than a big pair. I would expect a big pair to just push preflop most of the time, and almost never open-push an undercard flop. I pretty sure I have UTG drawing to six outs.

2) Here's the good one. Notice both CO and myself have doubled up early, both on donks pushing into big made hands. He doesn't want a confrontaion without a monster. So what can I put him on? AA might re-raise preflop, or might smooth call. KK is probably re-raising. QQ may re-raise or smooth call. AK could be doing just about anything. He's likely folding queens if I push because I'm the only player at the table who can bust him. He might fold kings fearing AA or a set of nines.

Anyway, I just really, really wanted to see what hands he'd call with there. My best guess is that he folded QQ. It was a pretty bad idea to push but I thought I'd share anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

[tigerite]

If CO was coolpoker## (can't remember the number in ##) he can have absolutely anything here. He re-raises with absolute garbage.

[FlyWf]

Would you fold QQ in his spot?

Folding AA-QQ on that flop requires putting you exactly on a set. You aren't tricking anyone into thinking you called PF with KK or AA.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you fold QQ in his spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold QQ in the CO here without a problem. Obviously, I'm not giving UTG much credit, but I wonder who, in MP, smooth-calls two raises preflop and then over-pushes a 9-high flop. That range is a set (poorly played PF but it hit), QQ, KK, AA, and maybe an idiot with JJ.

[FlyWf]

AA and KK are both extremely unlikely because you didn't raise at all preflop. I'm confident in that spot with QQ that I'm not facing an overpair and I'm getting great pot odds. I don't need to see TT and JJ that often to make this profitable.

(and if you want CO to give you credit for possibly playing AA, KK, and a low PP like an idiot you also need to consider that is also giving you credit for playing AQ like an idiot.)