(55) Donking it up with JJ - Page 2

Slim Pickens · #11 11-18-2005, 04:29 AM

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(Note: I don't actually put those players on those hands but that's always what they've got for me when I fold like this lololol.)

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So I decided to run a $55 experiment here. The title is "Are people really as dumb as I want them to be?"

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t1145)
UTG+1 (t1470)
MP1 (t945)
Hero (t2075)
CO (t2205)
Button (t730)
SB (t1015)
BB (t415)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t100, 2 folds, Hero calls t100, CO raises to t250, 3 folds, UTG calls t150, Hero calls t150.

Flop: (t795) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets all-in [t895] , Hero raises all-in [t1825] , CO folds.

Turn: (t2585) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t2585) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t2585

UTG has Ks As (one pair, nines).
Hero has Js Jd (two pair, jacks and nines).
Outcome: Hero wins t2585.

jeffraider · #12 11-18-2005, 04:31 AM

Hahahaha okay sold I'm just going to bite my tongue and start calling then.

bigt439 · #13 11-18-2005, 09:31 AM

You're very luck CO had AK too. I think this is a very easy fold on the flop. For this reason I actually might muck preflop. Oh how weak tight. But seriously, what are you hoping for other than flopping a jack, which you don't have odds to do?

1C5 · #14 11-18-2005, 10:30 AM

Easy fold?

In the 22s I call here with JJ.

Also, what do you put CO on? AK does make sense as does TT,99 and maybe AQ and QQ.

You would think he would reaise with AA, KK or even QQ...

But I admit, am a little scared about the player behind me so I can see a fold just for this reason...

bigt439 · #15 11-18-2005, 11:42 AM

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Easy fold?

In the 22s I call here with JJ.

Also, what do you put CO on? AK does make sense as does TT,99 and maybe AQ and QQ.

You would think he would reaise with AA, KK or even QQ...

But I admit, am a little scared about the player behind me so I can see a fold just for this reason...

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Did you just have an epiphany in this reply?

You say at the beginning you call and then outline an argument that clearly dictates folding.

Think about a UTG raiser's range that pushes that flop, and a CO's range that has reraised a UTG raise and has yet to act. We're [censored] crushed here.

1C5 · #16 11-18-2005, 12:35 PM

Maybe at the 55s but I don't play them. At the 22s and lower, it is not an easy fold. Not an easy call either mind you.

#17 11-18-2005, 12:44 PM

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You're very luck CO had AK too. I think this is a very easy fold on the flop. For this reason I actually might muck preflop. Oh how weak tight. But seriously, what are you hoping for other than flopping a jack, which you don't have odds to do?

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If you have J-J, the flop will not have over cards about a third of the time (I got this stat from a Sklansky's book, when I tried the math it was arond 43%). You will hit your set on the flop another 12% of the time. So you basically have a 48% to 55% of having an over pair or set on the flop. You were getting odds preflop, so I like the call, but I might have pushed again depending on the players and table dynamics.

If I were UTG with A-A through Q-Q, it's a clear re-raise for me pre-flop b/c I want this hand heads-up. UTG just called. So I don't put UTG on those hands. An easy call.

The real issue is the CO. Did he have something pre-flop or was he trying to squeeze one of you out? He will only have you dominated 3 out of every 220 times, so its way more likely he was trying to squeeze a player out and get a coin flip with an Ace / Broadway combo or was testing the waters with a low pocket pair with his the raise?

You need to find out, although I wonder if just calling UTG's bet would have been enough? Your all-in to me screamed, "I need to chase the CO out!" Was he the type of player that would put you to the test if you did not act in big way first? If so, the all-in was a great play. If not, a little risky but probably still alright.

Well played, I thought so even before reading the hand's results.

Melchiades · #18 11-18-2005, 01:08 PM

I like the way you played it in the original post. I fold that flop.

The combination of the push and a preflop reraiser yet to act make this a pretty clear fold for me.

Slim Pickens · #19 11-18-2005, 01:45 PM

I'm not liking that logic. There's no way I'm just calling here.

Slim Pickens · #20 11-18-2005, 01:56 PM

OK, so here's why I did this.

1) UTG is likely to have AK/AQ/other crap rather than a big pair. I would expect a big pair to just push preflop most of the time, and almost never open-push an undercard flop. I pretty sure I have UTG drawing to six outs.

2) Here's the good one. Notice both CO and myself have doubled up early, both on donks pushing into big made hands. He doesn't want a confrontaion without a monster. So what can I put him on? AA might re-raise preflop, or might smooth call. KK is probably re-raising. QQ may re-raise or smooth call. AK could be doing just about anything. He's likely folding queens if I push because I'm the only player at the table who can bust him. He might fold kings fearing AA or a set of nines.

Anyway, I just really, really wanted to see what hands he'd call with there. My best guess is that he folded QQ. It was a pretty bad idea to push but I thought I'd share anyway.