$22: AQ 3 handed, interesting twist

[IdiotVig]

[ QUOTE ]
PartyPoker, Big Blind is t300 (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Button (t234)
Hero (t1030)
BB (t6736)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">Hero ...</font>

Two other facts:
The short stack had actually left the table and was being blinded.
The last time I had raised all-in, the big stack called me with 9-7.

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Not sure if I'm doing this right, but from values I plugged in to the ICM calculator:

Assuming shortie does not pick up connection next hand, if you muck this hand and next, letting villain pick up the short stack gives you a stack of 880 to 7120, for EV of 0.322. Pushing and winning (and let's assume you subsequently muck from the button next hand so big stack picks up shortie's blind) gives you a stack of 2060 to 5940, for an EV of .3515.

So, assuming you push and win X% of the time, you need:

.3515X + .2(1-X) &gt;= .322

Or, about 80.5% of the time. &lt;smarmy&gt;So, verify that villain has, in fact, been dealt one card, and that it matches one of your own before pushing.&lt;/smarmy&gt;

And, if I got that wrong, well, at least my name's fitting, and y'all will enjoy hopping in the 22s against me.

Edit: Not going to try tweaking for if shortie reconnects. My head hurts enough as is.