nfl mnf 11/14 GOY

[CCx]

Total record: 22-20-1
Total units YTD: +0.8

eagles -2.5 (3 units) (have this from earlier in the week, eagles -3 +110 is also available)

the biggest game in eagles regular season in the last 3-4 years - if they lose here, it's over

sure there's lots of other factors: revenge, injuries, bye weeks, primetime W-L record, home W-L record, T.O., the 'unknown', all that good stuff

but it comes down to the fact that if the eagles do not win the game tonight, they are out of the playoffs - they know this, the fans know this, and the stinkin cockroach cowboy fans know it too...and should be scared

i may jump off a bridge if they lose tonight, so if you're in philly keep an eye on the local news

[ QUOTE ]
Total record: 22-20-1
Total units YTD: +0.8

eagles -2.5 (3 units) (have this from earlier in the week, eagles -3 +110 is also available)

the biggest game in eagles regular season in the last 3-4 years - if they lose here, it's over

sure there's lots of other factors: revenge, injuries, bye weeks, primetime W-L record, home W-L record, T.O., the 'unknown', all that good stuff

but it comes down to the fact that if the eagles do not win the game tonight, they are out of the playoffs - they know this, the fans know this, and the stinkin cockroach cowboy fans know it too...and should be scared

i may jump off a bridge if they lose tonight, so if you're in philly keep an eye on the local news

[/ QUOTE ]

Wear a parachute in case you have 2nd thoughts

[jedinite]

CCx,

Its no suprise where you're at with this game. But do you have any reasonings / details in your thought process beyond the emotional and the "must win" factors?

Per my own picks thread and reposted in the other MNF thread, I feel this is a very strong play for Dallas. I believe the loss of Hank Fraley is a huge factor. I also believe Philly is going to be distracted by the media circus around the TO story.

I understand this is a must-win game for Philly. But as much so, i believe Dallas knows this as well and isn't going to be suprised by the "playoff environment". If we're talking pure emotional factors, I believe Dallas has almost (but not quite) as much to gain as Philly, in terms of putting away a bitter rival and taking a big lead in the division... i.e per your post:

[ QUOTE ]

but it comes down to the fact that if the eagles do not win the game tonight, they are out of the playoffs - they know this, the fans know this, and the stinkin cockaroach cowboys know it too... and want to be the ones to deliver the coup-de-grace


[/ QUOTE ]

I respect you, i respect your contributions to this forum. you might not know it, but I'm a huge Philly fan personally. Most of my fantasy teams are comprised heavily of Philly players. But over long years of handicapping i've disciplined myself to keep emotion out of betting regarding teams I like, and i'm just curious if you're doing the same here.

In fact, if I were as big a Philly fan as you, I'd consider an emotional hedge here, taking the points or even the Dallas moneyline - might keep you away from that bridge later [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
CCx,

Its no suprise where you're at with this game. But do you have any reasonings / details in your thought process beyond the emotional and the "must win" factors?

Per my own picks thread and reposted in the other MNF thread, I feel this is a very strong play for Dallas. I believe the loss of Hank Fraley is a huge factor. I also believe Philly is going to be distracted by the media circus around the TO story.

I understand this is a must-win game for Philly. But as much so, i believe Dallas knows this as well and isn't going to be suprised by the "playoff environment". If we're talking pure emotional factors, I believe Dallas has almost (but not quite) as much to gain as Philly, in terms of putting away a bitter rival and taking a big lead in the division.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not much into storylines as betting angles but it seems the entire Philly team is not only playing Dallas but TO and his shadow. I have zero idea whether this improves focus, or increases anger thereby possibly destroying focus. I hope it's the former.

[Easy E]

We can't lose you to a BFB accident, so I put down a double-bet on the Cowboys. This is the same double-bet that I put on the Falcons this week, thinking they also would have no trouble winning. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

So, the Eagles can't lose. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Hopefully they win by 3 points or less. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[jedinite]

I likewise don't put that much stock in storylines. But I can't help but believe the spectre of TO can't be helping and can only be hurting. We know the media is circling around the story like packs of jackals. We know McNabb, etc are getting bombarded by questions at every turn.

Thinking about this situation, i can't help but think back to the Superbowl and how Philly and McNabb especially just came out flat. When the analogies started getting thrown out by the talking heads that this game was "the biggest regular season game in Philly's history" /etc I couldn't help but think back to how lackluster Philly looked in their last "biggest game in history" where the main stories were "TO injured / coming back / "we can win without him" and "Black Quarterback".

[Sluss]

This is one of those Eagles games. In the past five years they have had several of these. Their down, there is almost no way they can win, injuries whatever. Then they go out and win the game.

I have learned to stay clear of these games.

[CCx]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe the loss of Hank Fraley is a huge factor.

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Definitely has the potential to be a factor. Whether it's HUGE or not remains to be seen, but it's never a good injury when your starting center over the last few years is out.

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I also believe Philly is going to be distracted by the media circus around the TO story.

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I don't think so - if you're talking about CURRENTLY distracted, that is. They've already been distracted - they've been distracted the whole season - they were distracted when they won, and they were distracted when they lost. I don't think this is too big of a factor here (last week's game much more than this week's game i think)

[ QUOTE ]
I respect you, i respect your contributions to this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not entirely sure why, but thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I enjoy reading your analysis on games, and even though there are some games I don't agree with, I think there is something to be said for someone who takes time to dissect each game like you do.

[ QUOTE ]
But over long years of handicapping i've disciplined myself to keep emotion out of betting regarding teams I like, and i'm just curious if you're doing the same here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been at it for many years myself. I'm not a stats guy, number cruncher, trend whore, square, sharp, bookie, etc. I make my picks, and I roll with 'em. If I make a pick and the game plays out in the manner in which I capped it, and the play loses, ohwell. If I make a pick and the game is the exact opposite of the manner in which I capped it, and the play wins, ohwell. I don't really do mega-science percentages like others on this board and elsewhere (which in many places automatically qualifies me as a square, shrug), so if and when I bet on my own team against my better judgement, well, that should be taken by others at their own risk.

A lot of picks are like that on this board and others - you never know where someone stands when they are capping a game, in terms of rooting interests. I've been up front from day one about who I'm rooting for in every sport when discussing a game. Does that set me up for a lot of flack from everyone else? Sure it does - but I'm a Philly guy, and really could give a fuc[/i]k what anyone else says. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

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In fact, if I were as big a Philly fan as you, I'd consider an emotional hedge here

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My emotional hedge will be handled with about 15 pitchers of Lager, give or take. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[holeplug]

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I believe the loss of Hank Fraley is a huge factor.

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Definitely has the potential to be a factor. Whether it's HUGE or not remains to be seen, but it's never a good injury when your starting center over the last few years is out.

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I believe a rookie is starting in his place as well although playing at home will certainly help him making line calls an such.

[JupiterUWG]

i'm with you on philly here, not sure if its a blessing or a curse