Small Edge or Big Leak?

Rockatansky · #1 11-03-2005, 09:41 AM

Same Villain in each hand, and he is 52/22/1.29. Not a complete and total maniac, but his use of aggression is about as injudicious as you could possibly imagine.

This hand happened maybe 10 minutes before the hand in question.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB ($49.30)
UTG ($42.40)
MP ($62)
Hero ($54.90)
SB ($15.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 2 folds, UTG calls $5.

Flop: ($14.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $8, UTG calls $35.40 (All-In), Hero calls $27.40.

Turn: ($85.55) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($85.55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $85.55

Results:
UTG has Kd Td (two pair, tens and sixes).
Hero has Kc Qh (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: UTG wins $85.55.

Now onto the hand in question:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($45.30)
Button ($86.70)
SB ($61.50)
BB ($50)
Hero ($50)
MP ($14.35)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets $6, Hero?

djoyce003 · #2 11-03-2005, 10:28 AM

is the villain from hand 1 the button or the cutoff?

Hand 1 is pretty bad btw...even though you were ahead I think this is a really bad spot to call and against this guy you will obviously be able to find much better spots to get the money in than king high....you see that you are at best slightly ahead, and even an idiot with Ace high is ahead of you....yeah you were ahead and it turned out the call was "correct" but calling all-ins with king high even against maniacs is kind of crazy I think. Unfortunate result though..tough beat.

Hand 2 - I probably fold...especially if psycho is CO and yet to act...you don't want to call the 6 only to have him push over the top...it may happen even if the psycho is button as the CO might be waiting to trap him. You are drawing to the third nuts on a one card flush...the K or A beats you and even if you hit your hand you aren't likely to like it, and you will likely only get action if you are beat.

Rockatansky · #3 11-03-2005, 10:30 AM

Villain in Hand 1 is Button in Hand 2. I agree that the call in Hand 1 is extremely marginal and usually very bad - I make that call something like 1% of the time. I just included it to show what kind of moves Villain is capable of.

Skuzzy · #4 11-03-2005, 10:50 AM

Hand 2 - I might not like the result but with a big draw here I probably push, then go run the numbers in poker stove when I lose to see if I was right or even close. My guess is your fold equity on a push, even if villain is an idiot, will let you get it in here with +EV. Given he may have quite a wide range of hands he'll call with ( a singel low heart?) even your over card outs could end up good here.

I may be way off. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] I'm trying to get mean so others here stop labelling me a pansy.

Hmmm. I retract the above as I just realised u don't have the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] so your outs are not to the nuts and u may be drawing dead. Damn it I'm weak all over again.

djoyce003 · #5 11-03-2005, 10:52 AM

my issue here is that there is another player in this hand yet to act....if you push and run into a bigger hand you are toast....he could be drawing to 2 outs to someone with a pair, plus the Ace of hearts....that's why I fold here...nothing like getting pushed into a big hand by an idiot....which could easily happen here...if he was headsup with the maniac i'd like a push a lot more.

Skuzzy · #6 11-03-2005, 10:56 AM

... sorry retracted in post above - I should read more carefully [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

#7 11-03-2005, 11:43 AM

I think you should fold here and not even think twice about it. You should never in a million years have called in hand 1, and you should never in a million years call in hand 2. I really think it's that simple.

swolfe · #8 11-03-2005, 12:27 PM

why didn't you make a continuation bet?

Rockatansky · #9 11-03-2005, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
my issue here is that there is another player in this hand yet to act....if you push and run into a bigger hand you are toast....he could be drawing to 2 outs to someone with a pair, plus the Ace of hearts....that's why I fold here...nothing like getting pushed into a big hand by an idiot....which could easily happen here...if he was headsup with the maniac i'd like a push a lot more.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
why didn't you make a continuation bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually won't continuation bet into multiple opponents on such a draw-heavy board; I feel like I'll get called here 100% of the time. Of course, the counter-argument is that I (may) have an equity edge, and thus should bet and get calls from hands that are behind me. Is the fact that my draws were non-nut an argument for betting out on the flop, to find out where I stood, and maybe, just maybe, fold out a stronger flush draw?

I also checked here because I had a half-assed plan. There was little doubt that Villain was going to bet if checked to. His AF wasn't all that high, but he had definitely changed gears and started lagging it up the past few orbits. My plan was to let him bet and then check min-raise him, hopefully knocking CO out of the pot and getting it heads up with Villain, against whom I was likely ahead. Good idea? Horrible idea?

BobboFitos · #10 11-03-2005, 02:39 PM

hand 1 is really, really bad

hand 2 i'd call. why check ze flop tho? Fire away. a flop check with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] would be muchos differante.