pocket 10s on the BB

[bwana devil]

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Its just a tough hand to play multihanded if you don't hit trips and I think the PFR call already gets you the odds you need.

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as someone else mentioned, youre not trying to hit trips to win w/ this. TT does not need trips to win. if youre playing this way reevaluate what youre doing w/ this hand.

EDIT you can never have too good of odds. keep making them better.

I don't think the 3bet is to protect your hand. That would imply you don't want people to call profitably (Which a raise is already accomplishing). I think the 3bet is purely for value but its slim

I'm not saying I would fold it - I just wouldn't bloat the pot with 5 callers.

[bwana devil]

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I'm not saying I would fold it - I just wouldn't bloat the pot with 5 callers.

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i understand that. im asking you to rethink that strategy.

bwana.

I hear what you're saying.

At what pocket pair do you not 3bet?

*grunch*
I check the flop. It's a completely different and much more interesting hand after that. Betting this flop is spewing IMO.

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*grunch*
I check the flop. It's a completely different and much more interesting hand after that. Betting this flop is spewing IMO.

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I didn't take into account the 3 bet preflop. I don't see it changing my opinion. Please flame me. I'd love to know why we're betting here. There's no way in hell that you're folding anyone for one bet.

I don't like this PF 3 bet at all. And I can't imagine why so many people are advocating it. I'd love to see the maths (which I'm not talented enough to do) on 1. the percentage chance an overcard flops and 2. the percentage chance you're not behind when it's 5 handed.

I think you'll find the extra bet OOP PF is -EV.

I'll give the basic stuff a try.

A,K,Q,J on the flop. (16\50)(16\49)(16\48)

By my calculations (which are more often that not wrong) there is a 97% chance an overcard will fall on the flop.

Chance that 1 opponent holds that overcard.
(3\50)(3\49) = 12.1%
12.1%*4 villians = 48.4%
48.4%*97% the card flops = 47%

EDIT: It's actually a little better than this.
You know 5 cards that aren't the overcard (assuming he didn't make a set)
(3\47)(3\46)
4 villians
~51%


50% of time you have TT someone will make a better pair. This isn't too bad, until you consider the following.

1. This is assuming everyone plays completely random cards (it's a raised pot, this is FAR from the case).
2. This is assuming only 1 overcard falls on the flop, and I imagine a large amount of time more than one overcard falls.
3. This is assuming that villian only makes 1 pair. You've got str8 draws, flush draws, 2 pr all of which have a better chance of improving than you (if not beating you already).
4. It only gets worse after the flop.

5 handed, you are definitely playing TT for it's set potential.

I did go back and look at TT in SSH and its definitely a Reraise according ot both tight and loose preflop suggestions.

However, I think it is a tough hand to play OOP and without trips. I think a majority of value with TT comes when the trips hit. I don't think it holds up well unimproved if Overcards appear on Flop or Turn.

Your calculations of an overcard hitting aren't correct. What you calculated is the chance of drawing three higher cards than T in a row, with putting each of the drawn cards back into the deck. By the way the correct answer then is 3% not 97%. 97% is the chance that you don't draw 3 in a row.
You have to calculate the chances of a flop with NO higher card, which would be: (34/50)*(33/49)*(32/48)
This shows that the chances of a flop with no higher cards are 30,5%. In these cases you reasonably hold the best hand.
So the preflop 3-bet IS FOR VALUE against 5 opponents, even if you don't hit your set.
If you want me to explain those calculations further, you can send me a message anytime. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

This is good. Someone who knows what they're doing mathematically. Thanks for the calculations.

What your maths has told us is that 60% of the time, an overcard flops.

Now calculate the times that an overcard doesn't hit in 4 and 5 cards. Because overcards are now staying in because the pot is bloated and you are now playing them as high pair. The only upshot to this is that you get a small chance to make your set again. But you also have to be aware that even OC are going to be raising this flop and it's going to cost you.


When Hero holds a pair, there's something like a 40% chance someone else has a pair. If it's higher than Hero's he's a dog.
Now calculate the chance that someone who has a lower pair hasn't made a set, when the board is all lower than a T.

Take away all the times this is a 3 flush board (your T flush isn't going to be good).

All these factors including implied odds the odds for your TT plummet dramatically.

If you don't make a set in a five way pot with TT you are in a world of pain.


BTW. If you went all in against 5 players who play totally random cards with no post flop betting. TT would only win 30% of the time. I think basing your raise on the figure you came up with is seriously flawed.


<font color="blue"> You raise a 5+multiway pot with TT in order to induce many people to go further with their hands when you make your set and they are big dogs.
The pot is already raised for you. Raising it any further is -EV IMO. </font>