Top set river play - am I crazy?

[RatFink]

UTG is relatively new to the table, but has been involved passively in quite a number of pots. Unfortunately hasn't gone to showdown yet.

Hero has played many hands with CO. CO has a tight (AA-TT,AK) pre-flop raising standard, is agressive post-flop if they make it to the turn with more than a pair. Rarely if ever aggressive with draws.

PokerBlue $1/$2 8 handed. Manually constructed since their hand histories blow.

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 3 folds, CO raises, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, 2 folds, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets, <font color="red"> Hero raises </font>, UTG calls, CO calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, CO 3-bets, <font color="red">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, CO calls.

River: (20.25 BB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, CO raises, <font color="red">Hero ????</font>

I know I'm ahead of CO, as CO is not aggressive with their draws and Hero can almost exclusively put CO on JJ, most likely with the J of clubs. UTG of course appears to be on the flush draw and unfortunately there just isn't enough evidence to say that they'd be able to bluff bet this river.

If CO hadn't raised, I'd probably be able to overcall here since I feel comfortable in my CO read and the 22.25:1 is a payoff hand if UTG has the likely flush. But now I'm in a pickle. I cannot 3-bet, and I can't really call two cold with action still to happen behind me. To me it seems like an easy fold, but I'm working on breaking out of my weak-tight shell. As such I post it for feedback to see if there should be a call here since I may be good x/x% times especially given read on CO.

[WalkAmongUs]

Call for 20:1 pot odds but expect to see a flush ~90% of the time or a little more.

Wasn't paying attention. your odds are quite a bit lower with the chance of you having to put in 4 bets for a showdown. I now think it would be a fold since you don't close the action.

Me multitabling would probably turn this into a call though...

[Fryguy]

I call here, UTG looks like he woke up with his flush, and CO is just overplaying something. I would love to find a fold here, as I think you are almost certainly going to go to 4-bets here, but folding here is retarded. Call, and call one more back, and get shown a flush quite a bit of the time here.

Actually getting 23.25 : 2 on the river, with a chance for it to be raised again behind him. This is a tough spot and I completely agree that we are ahead of CO (unless he holds T9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]). Everything about this looks like a flush draw that came through though, and I doubt we are ahead here even 10% of the time. I would check to make sure that UTG and CO aren't from the same city and then click fold.

[macdaddy991]

[ QUOTE ]
Call for 20:1 pot odds but expect to see a flush ~90% of the time or a little more.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is 10/1 (CO raised) and I think hero may have to call a 3 bet or cap.

Never the less, I think a call here. You have top set, and UTG would have been much better off check raising that river with the aggression you showed. Make the crying call

[@bsolute_luck]

if UTG has the flush, he's 3-betting behind you so you should fold. if you think he's junk, gotta 3-bet because we have CO beat.

[RatFink]

[ QUOTE ]
if UTG has the flush, he's 3-betting behind you so you should fold. if you think he's junk, gotta 3-bet because we have CO beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is precisely the quandry I was in. I just didn't know enough about UTG. I did everything possible to fold him out of anything but a flush draw, and he donks the river instead of CR knowing one of two highly active players would most likely bet. To me that adds up to an inexperienced player and not a tricky player, so I'm likely facing a weak flush here rather than a masterful bluff.