UB 5-10 slowplayed flopped nuts river play

[Ulysses]

I (1000) open in EP for 35 w/ Jd Qd. Both blinds (1000) call.

Flop Ad Ks Td

SB pots 105, BB folds, I call. SB is pretty decent, a little on the conservative side. Overall relatively solid and pretty straightforward. My default is to raise here, just mixing it up a little.

Turn Ad Ks Td Ah

SB bets pot 315. I call.

River Ad Ks Td Ah 4c

SB checks. 945 in pot. I have 545 left. Push, check, or try to milk him for less?

[durron597]

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Overall relatively solid and pretty straightforward.

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What is % chance in your opinion he will check the river with aces full? what about KKKAA or TTTAA?

[Ulysses]

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Overall relatively solid and pretty straightforward.

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What is % chance in your opinion he will check the river with aces full? what about KKKAA or TTTAA?

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Not very high in all cases. That only seems good to induce a bluff from a missed flush draw, and I don't think he thinks I'll call that turn bet w/ just a flush draw. Also, with that much in the pot already, I think most will just give up rather than bluff the river. His line smells like an Ace to me.

[turnipmonster]

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Push, check, or try to milk him for less?

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I think many opponents will often block on the river instead of planning to call a small bet, so to me his check would mean he is either calling for the rest or not at all.

--turnipmonster

[9cao]

I can't really see SB checking with AK, AT there because I don't think he could reasonably assume you would bluff giving him almost 3 to 1 on a call. The only hands that I can think of are AQ, AJ, and possibly TT. I think he calls push if he calls anything and at least 50% of the time it is with Ax so I say push.

[TonyBlair]

You say he's decent so I guess if he's going to pay you off anyway he'd have led out himself, unless inducing a bluff. As such, I wouldn't have him on a full. So you win.

Unless you could put him on your hand, I don't see the value of moving all-in. Is a small milk bet worth the risk that he's lost his head and can beat you? Probably.

[Diplomat]

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Push, check, or try to milk him for less?

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I think many opponents will often block on the river instead of planning to call a small bet, so to me his check would mean he is either calling for the rest or not at all.

--turnipmonster

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I agree. The only problem I can see is if he is thinking exactly "he's not calling with any hand at all, but if I check my full house he might bet a busted draw."

-Diplomat

[coltrane]

villain bet 315 on the turn, there's 945 in the pot, and you only have 545 left?.....I don't think there's any value bet other than all-in here, and a value bet is obviously in order if you don't think he's full......if he'll take the line he took and then fold an ace on the river, I think one of you isn't playing correctly.....I don't know anyone who's played with me who'll fold an ace in this spot for ~550 in a ~1500 pot given the stacks/earlier street action.....and yeah, I think it's better to raise the flop, but given that you tried something different, I think you still have to try for his whole stack.......at least give him the opportunity to give it to you and then you can assess whether you think your line experiment worked.......

[okayplayer]

I think Villain is either calling with an Ace or not calling, so any bet should be all in.

FWIW, I'd push turn.

[captZEEbo1]

I like pushing turn.