World Series Bets

[craig r]

Am I the only one that thinks this is too good to be true? I think there is a very good chance (relative to all other years) that it will be a WC world series. BOS, CLE, and NYY are very "live" WC. Houston is also very dangerous with their rotation and closer. And even if there is only a 5% of both WC teams making the WS, we would still lose 100% of the time. I have been saying since early August that I think CHI is highly over rated (so are Bos and NYY, but they are still in the toughest division hands down). I will most likely not be taking this bet on either side, but if you guys bet it up to + odds I don't think it will be that bad of a bet.

I also don't think this is a big enough novelty bet like the WSOP. Bodog has some pretty bad lines, but I don't think they would hang this one for the sake of publicity or to get people to place -ev bets.

Maybe I am just playing devils advocate too much. What I would like to do is figure out the % of each possible scenario (I won't do this unless it goes to plus odds, but I will help [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). Here are the scenarios in the AL (we will assume that HOU wins the WC, so the scenarios there are pretty set in stone; also I think CHI will win the central):

NYY (WC) vs CHI
ANA vs BOS

BOS (WC) vs CHI
ANA vs NYY

CLE (WC) vs BOS
ANA vs CHI

CLE (WC) vs NYY
ANA vs CHI

(and for the hell of it)

HOU (WC) vs ATL
SD vs STL

In all the above scenarios, I think the WC has a great chance of winning. One thing, I just thought about though, if if CLE, NYY, and BOS are all tied at the end of the regular season, this hurts the chances of a WC winning, because BOS or NYY might have to play two extra games, before getting to the post season. Anyways, I am going to end this long post now. but, i think we can gauge our chances better now (I could definitely be wrong about this bet being +EV)

craig

p.s. If you do bet the "no" I think the biggest chance of the bet losing is scenario 2 above.

p.s.s. With all the hedging that goes on in this forum, I definitely think you have to stick this bet out no matter what. You will destroy your odds later if you hedge (unless those bets by themselves are +EV of course).

p.s.s.s. Did anybody look at the odds of each team winning the W.S. (except for the WC)? Could those be a better bet, by betting them all?

FIN

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] whatever lorinda wants;
well;

lorinda gets...

sung to damn yankees lola tune...

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[DougOzzzz]

whatever the percentages are, they are nowhere near as high as 48% that a WC will win the WS. In fact, the best chance any single team has is probably around 20%.

[lorinda]

I believe the clue was the $100 max.

Lori

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe the clue was the $100 max.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I had this exact same thought last night to be honest. And hey, it worked for me. I deposited my first money and made my first bet. Thing is, I completely suck at sports gambling and will only put money on things I think are solid gambles.