series prices

[craig r]

2005 MLB Playoffs
Playoff Series Prices: American League Championship Series (ALCS)
Tue 10/11 LAA Angels vs Chicago White Sox
05:05 PM 2003 LAA Angels +155
2004 Chicago White Sox -165
Playoff Series Prices: National League Championship Series (NLCS)
Wed 10/12 Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals
05:05 PM 2001 Houston Astros +180
2002 St. Louis Cardinals -190

[DougOzzzz]

The dogs look good. The LAA-CWS line is the first playoff series line that has "surprised" me. Not saying the other lines have been correct, but they've been pretty close to expected. I did not expect CWS to be significant favorites. Maybe it is because they have had a few off days to set the rotation.

[scott8]

And maybe because the Angels rotation is in complete disarray.

[DougOzzzz]

that's essentially the same thing I said.

Not sure how much effect that SHOULD have on the lines though. I think it's not that much. LAA is now +165 at Pinnacle.

[scott8]

I'm not sure what you are saying then.

You don't think losing their #1 in Colon should effect the price?

Or another starter in Washburn?

And the bullpen has been stretched, the team has just played back to back gut wrenching games, one on each coast, etc.

But then again, you never said what you thought the series price would be, so perhaps none of this has anything to do with your thinking.

-SC

I assume Byrd starts game 1 FWIW.

[DougOzzzz]

no, of course it should effect the price. I just thought maybe it shouldn't effect the price as much as it has.

To be honest I don't know what the price should be. I was just saying that it was the first line that surprised me, though maybe it wouldn't have if I bothered to make the connection that Colon would miss the series when he went down today.

[Voltron87]

those lines look very good IMO

maybe the chisox shouldnt be favored so much, but they do have homefield and their rotation is going to be rested great while the angels have colon hurt and are getting crap for rest.

i might put down on the cards at -190. i dont see how that series is close.

[mosquito]

Actually Houston is tempting for a small wager. The price is close to right, St Louis is formidable but not unbeatable. Also Houston's pitching has the potential to dominate.

As for the AL, I already had LAA to win the pennant. No reason to take a lower price now, it ain't THAT good. Just
hope LAA plays well enough to give me a hedge opp, should I choose to take it.......

[mrbaseball]

I've talked about Hou/StL in about 5 other threads. I see edge on Hou at this price.

Chi/LAA I won't touch. All else being equal it should be a coinflip. But all else isn't equal. No Colon maybe? And the rest of the staff is used and abused. And they spent a good portion of the last 48 hours on redeye flights. This is a unique situation that only rarely pops up in playoff baseball and I'll be honest and admit I am unsure of the magnitude of its effect. That said it, coupled ith Chicagos rest, should have some sort of impact.

But as a White Sox fan I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy this one and hope my 20-1 White Sox AL pennant bet from back in April pays somes dividends in October! White Sox fans are'nt used to any of this and I just wanna enjoy it. Also if it happens I have tickets to Game One of the World Series [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[DougOzzzz]

LAA is now -118 to win the series at Pinnacle.

This line move doesn't seem consistent. They were +165 as 2:30 pm yesterday (not sure if it moved since then), then won a game that they were big underdogs on the road to take a 1-0 lead.

Mathematically, the original series price basically said the CWS are 56% to win each game. However, the line today says they are 57%+ to win each game. This, despite the fact that they just played a game that they were (according to the lines) 65% to win. Meaning, before game 1 the line said CWS was about 54.5% to win games 2-7, and now it is saying they are 57%.

I have the "equivalent" line after game 1 as -132 for LAA.