Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River

[Nikanoru]

I think the point of the hand is just that people are going broke on their middling strong hands like this. The way our opponent bets is representing a hand that is either much stronger or a hand that is worse but is willing to keep betting. If we push before the river, we are losing value in a lot of ways: We lose the most when we're behind(and we bust out, too, which makes this exponentially worse), and we win the least when we're ahead, unless we got lucky and he flopped a lower 2 pair or gets stubborn with AQ. I don't think this hand is really about putting the other guy on a range(which is the easy part of the hand) or about Gigabet having some amazing read on the dude. They would've included that in the original post, I don't think they're making these posts with arrogant intent.

I thought calling was totally standard for both the flop and the turn, and I was suprised how many people wanted to push right away. This river is very interesting, though. I think the whole hand really shows off a very important concept: Gambler's ruin. When you hit 0, you're out. Obviously you want to avoid that, but I think this hand is meant to show off how much and when. My first thought when I saw the river action was "Yes, got him! PUSH!", but the more I think about it the more I don't like pushing. Last 900 chips, you gain very little actual equity for putting them in when ahead and you lose so badly when you're behind, because it busts you out, even though I think that's a very small percent of the time. With 900 left you still have a chance, and with either 3400 or 4300, either way you're still an above average but not huge stack.

I don't know, I might just push the river anyway, because I'd be pretty shocked to see a better hand and the 900 chips are still a pretty decent chunk. my mental models for this are still a little rough.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the point of this hand is Way ahead way behind.

And the takeaway is that villain will fold to a:
push on the flop
push on the turn
push on the river (difficult laydown)

When he is behind.

Every push is poor in my opinion, and everyone is assuming that villain will call when he is behind.

.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think villain folding to the turn is unlikely.. with a card to come and great odds, so when you're ahead there you're still gettiing payed off. I think.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a check, expecting to lose to QT

[/ QUOTE ]

pwnd

[gergery]

I'd have checked behind.

Plenty of people with straights would have gotten nervous that you'd hit the flush and will also check. They also can just play bad and get scared.

I also agree that the marginal utility of having a few extra chips from taking his stack is worth relatively less than the chips you have if you bust. Particularly since i think you could well be behind.

-g

[junkmail3]

I know I'm really late on this one, but I wanted to finish it up here before I read the expert responses. I haven't read this thread yet either though.

This is a tough river card. I'm not sure who it scares more though, villian or hero. But from the way villain played this hand, he could have something huge, or nothing at all. I think, like I said before, we're way ahead or way behind. I think villian will call anything, even a straight he already had. He probably doesn't have a FH, or he would have bet it.

Because I still have absolutely no idea where I am on this hand, I check and keep myself in the tournament. If I win, I'm sure I can find an edge later to get that 800-900 I passed up here.