Mmm...fun KK hand.

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
My hand would have to be good 55% of the time to cap the turn, and it isn't good that often. Though a draw completing card comes on the river, more often than not the player behind me isn't on a draw. I need to be good less than 5% (24.25:1) of the time, and I'm probably good 10% of the time on this river card.


[/ QUOTE ]

i get the cap turning part.

but...why wouldn't the player behind you not be on a draw. it's obviously better to play a draw from late position.

if you were closing the action - you'd need to be good less than 5% of the time (24.25:1)

but you aren't closing the action.

how do you figure that you are ahead 10% of the time?

i guess it is a judgement call on how often BB's 3-bet means he has you beat.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My hand would have to be good 55% of the time to cap the turn, and it isn't good that often. Though a draw completing card comes on the river, more often than not the player behind me isn't on a draw. I need to be good less than 5% (24.25:1) of the time, and I'm probably good 10% of the time on this river card.


[/ QUOTE ]

i get the cap turning part.

but...why wouldn't the player behind you not be on a draw. it's obviously better to play a draw from late position.

if you were closing the action - you'd need to be good less than 5% of the time (24.25:1)

but you aren't closing the action.

how do you figure that you are ahead 10% of the time?

i guess it is a judgement call on how often BB's 3-bet means he has you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
You can't go around assuming draws are out there because a potential draw came in. Yes, it's possible that he made his flush. It's also possible that he's fond of his pair of Q's, or his pair of T's. Folding to the first bet here would be pretty bad.

Rob

[ccwhoelse?]

i see your point. thanks.

[papawawa]

I think you folded a little late here man, probably should've when 3-bet on the turn. BB betting the turn is very suspicious. If hes smart, he probably made trip 5's knowing you'd raise anyone and everyone (is he a thinking player?). If he's not, and your read is correct, I think capping the turn is fine here (you're getting nice odds) in case he's making a foolish bluff. Unfortunately, I don't see him 3betting into such a big field w/o a big hand. Nice save on the end tho, MP2 definetly had that 5 or a flush.

[meep_42]

With MP2 waking up into 3 people on the river after cold-calling all hand, the fold is standard against a passive or reasonable player. (A bluff here will almost never fold both opponents)

-d

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you folded a little late here man, probably should've when 3-bet on the turn. BB betting the turn is very suspicious. If hes smart, he probably made trip 5's knowing you'd raise anyone and everyone (is he a thinking player?). If he's not, and your read is correct, I think capping the turn is fine here (you're getting nice odds) in case he's making a foolish bluff. Unfortunately, I don't see him 3betting into such a big field w/o a big hand. Nice save on the end tho, MP2 definetly had that 5 or a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, I can't fold to the 3-bet because A) I've got odds to spike my set and B) there's still a reasonable (though small) chance that I'm ahead.

Rob

[btspider]

nt

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
nt

[/ QUOTE ]
MP2 had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the really weakly played flush, and BB had 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I finished way out of first place on this one.

Rob

[DeathDonkey]

I would have just called the turn. You now beat QT, but are way behind a 5, and if he doesn't have you beat you wouldn't mind him doing the betting for you with the others calling. No one is folding a good draw on the turn so its not going to matter much, I don't think your good when he leads the turn but its just one of those cards. I also think you can fold to the river bet but I would pay it off for sanity. Good fold the last time around, anyone who calls there should have bought a soda with that dollar.

-DeathDonkey

[ccwhoelse?]

[ QUOTE ]
No one is folding a good draw on the turn so its not going to matter much

[/ QUOTE ]

i think that is incorrect thinking. i remember reading somewhere in TOP or HEFAP that you should always charge draws regardless of whether they have the odds to draw or not.