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  #121  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:03 PM
ZeroPointMachine ZeroPointMachine is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 136
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

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I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament.

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Ummm...so if you fold the J8, push one of your next three hands and it's folded to the BB, he's not going to have a random hand? Pushing any two is absolutely awful (absent an overly tight BB) and a leak a lot of pushbot players have. Chip EV does not = $EV in situations like this. It's nice for formulaic analysis and writing software, but it doesn't hold in spots like this when losing means you're out and you miss out on future +EV opportunities you would (on average) have had that are much better than the one you took.

I absolutely love playing against players who have this kind of pushing mentality in spots like this, more +$EV opportunities for me to gamble with a smaller portion of my stack against these players.

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You fold here and hope what?

In the next three hands I might get a better hand, and maybe nobody else will have already entered the pot(with a much better than random hand), and maybe those extra hands I'm pushing through won't wakeup with anything, and then maybe I can win against the big blinds random hand since he is calling anyway and if all else fails I can call from the big blind against one or more villains who have voluntarily entered the pot with better than random hands.

Pushing here is not giving up.

It is making the best possible move given your diminishing options.

Not pushing here is giving up.
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  #122  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:17 PM
Gramps Gramps is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Oaktown
Posts: 124
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

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You're thinking about it from "your" point of view and not Hero's. What future +EV situation is he passing on? Of course as the BB you love calling here and taking advantage of the "pushbot" but this hand has nothing to do with "pushbotting"...it is simply an opportunity which may be your last to get HU against a random hand with a "decent" holding 3way.

If you give me an example of waiting for the more +EV opp that comes along I'd be curious.

Also, +cEV is surely +$EV with 2BBs as the shortstack, unless I am misunderstanding something.

I agree that any 2 though is too much.

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The CO, UTG+1, UTG, and (worst-case scenario) BB hands that he can make a stand on/push on. Most of the time Hero will get a (more than slightly) better hand that he can push acting first with (a few more people behind him too, but still). If he pushes J8 and loses (which should happen ~ 50% of the time if BB (and to a lesser extent SB) isn't overly tight), he misses out on future +EV (expected) hand(s) - (i.e., let's say he folds the button and CO, then gets KJs UTG+1 and pushes acting first).

I.e., when it's your tourney life on the line, sometimes you pass up slightly +EV plays so you don't miss out on future higher (expected) +EV plays (that you now don't get as you're out of the tourney). There's so many variables in play that it's hard to put exact numbers on it, one of those "feel" things in a lot of spots. And the fact that if Hero waits til UTG+1 or UTG to push and wins against the BB, his FE is still pretty weak makes pushing J8 better than it otherwise would be. That's probably slightly counterbalanced by the relative chips stack sizes at the table - he probably has a little more FE after winning one showdown than he would against several 1500 stacks (since people calling him (Hero having ~500-800 chips) and losing lose their FE, etc.)
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  #123  
Old 12-29-2005, 07:32 PM
pooh74 pooh74 is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 316
Default Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack

[ QUOTE ]
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You're thinking about it from "your" point of view and not Hero's. What future +EV situation is he passing on? Of course as the BB you love calling here and taking advantage of the "pushbot" but this hand has nothing to do with "pushbotting"...it is simply an opportunity which may be your last to get HU against a random hand with a "decent" holding 3way.

If you give me an example of waiting for the more +EV opp that comes along I'd be curious.

Also, +cEV is surely +$EV with 2BBs as the shortstack, unless I am misunderstanding something.

I agree that any 2 though is too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

The CO, UTG+1, UTG, and (worst-case scenario) BB hands that he can make a stand on/push on. Most of the time Hero will get a (more than slightly) better hand that he can push acting first with (a few more people behind him too, but still). If he pushes J8 and loses (which should happen ~ 50% of the time if BB (and to a lesser extent SB) isn't overly tight), he misses out on future +EV (expected) hand(s) - (i.e., let's say he folds the button and CO, then gets KJs UTG+1 and pushes acting first).

I.e., when it's your tourney life on the line, sometimes you pass up slightly +EV plays so you don't miss out on future higher (expected) +EV plays (that you now don't get as you're out of the tourney). There's so many variables in play that it's hard to put exact numbers on it, one of those "feel" things in a lot of spots. And the fact that if Hero waits til UTG+1 or UTG to push and wins against the BB, his FE is still pretty weak makes pushing J8 better than it otherwise would be. That's probably slightly counterbalanced by the relative chips stack sizes at the table - he probably has a little more FE after winning one showdown than he would against several 1500 stacks (since people calling him (Hero having ~500-800 chips) and losing lose their FE, etc.)

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hmmm...ok, I hear ya, but I still see this very simply.

I am saying that Hero has x amount of FE over the SB with his measley stack. Now, with the action to hero on button hero is presented with a 3 way game and if we agree that he has FE over a player, even just 1 player then we can move on to step 2 which is waiting.

Step 2, Hero folded J8, now hero still has the same FE over the remaining players from the CO, he either has a better or worse hand, equally possible BTW, but now has less EV because there are 3 players left to act.

The problem is both simple and hard. It comes down to whether the loss in EV by having more players left to act is greater than the sum of the likelyhood of getting a better hand, the amount that better hand adds to your EV, and whether you can open the pot or not. I say the loss in EV is greater, you say it is not. I really cant prove it...I'm sorry, but you're right it is feel.
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