A set, a scare card, and a check raise

qbler · #1 09-20-2005, 04:20 PM

This one's from last night's 25K stars rebuy. Hero just moved to this table a couple orbits ago but has seen villain be fairly active. Raised from CO and called a push from the BB who had roughly the same stack with A8 and sucked out on AK, and just 2 hands ago limp/pushed AQ offsuit UTG+1. Can hero make this call? Should I have bet more on the flop or preflop? Note that the converter's not working completely right, blinds were 600/1200 with a 75 chip ante so there's 8475 in the pot after the flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200 (9 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 (t17157)
MP3 (t14036)
CO (t24510)
Button (t19461)
SB (t21408)
BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ (t80190)
UTG (t43140)
UTG+1 (t3145)
Hero (t46152)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to t3600, 5 folds, BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls t2400.

Flop: (t6600) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets t3600, Villain calls t3600.

Turn: (t13800) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets t6000, Villain raises to t72915, Hero...

Lloyd · #2 09-20-2005, 04:36 PM

I would have bet more on the flop because of the double draws and it's a board that very likely hit your opponent. So there's an excellent chance that he'll call a pot sized bet or even more.

Yeah, you're pretty screwed on the turn. I can't even decide if your smallish bet was good or not. It looks weak. But it's also an amount you'd bet with a Q.

What could he have here? I don't think he has AA or TT. He could have QQ-JJ, AK (although unlikely), AQ-AT, KQ, QJ. You're essentially 50/50 against that range so to me it comes down to this: would he make such a huge overbet with the nuts (although there are 2 flush draws out there). He seems like the kind of person who is aggressive and might very well just have two pair here. But it's a tough one. But even if he has a hand like KQ you're still 25% to fill up.

It's a tough decision. I think I'd make the call. Interesting hand.

phredd · #3 09-20-2005, 04:39 PM

Villain just called you pre-flop, but with that board, you have got to put at least a 3x pot bet in on the flop. There are too many draws available and you can't have gutshots, flush draws, and FH draws getting that cheap card. I probably push this particular flop, just to be sure.

As you played it, you need to fold. He's got the queen.

Dave D · #4 09-20-2005, 04:43 PM

I agree, bet the flop harder, with the antes I don't think you're even betting half the pot. I would have 3/4 this or potted it, at least.

That turn is rough, but you still have outs... I think you can fold here and still have a good stack. I think closeness to the money plays a part in the decision too...

qbler · #5 09-20-2005, 04:50 PM

In retrospect I definitely should have bet that flop harder (it was less than half the pot). I was kinda tired/on autopilot and just stuck in 3xBB on the stars slider thing. I don't really remember how close we were to money (I think still a few hundred away) but I'm only interested in the final table.

AtticusFinch · #6 09-20-2005, 05:46 PM

I agree with others that you should bet more on the flop. When he calls your small bet, you gain very little informationn, and there are way too many draws out.

Here's a thought, though: if you suspect you're now behind, why not check behind on the turn? You'll get a free shot at filling up, and stand a great chance of breaking him if you do. You might also induce a bluff on the river. And you'll keep the pot smaller so you'll more likely be able to afford to call down a bluff.

nath · #7 09-20-2005, 05:48 PM

Yeah, I'd bet 5-6k on the flop, and I might check the turn when that card hits. If the board pairs I'll get my stack in on the river... if not, well, I'll see what Villain does first.

Lloyd · #8 09-20-2005, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain just called you pre-flop, but with that board, you have got to put at least a 3x pot bet in on the flop. There are too many draws available and you can't have gutshots, flush draws, and FH draws getting that cheap card. I probably push this particular flop, just to be sure.

As you played it, you need to fold. He's got the queen.

[/ QUOTE ]
For the life of me, I could never imagine betting 19,800 into a 6,600 pot, let alone pushing for over 40,000. At best, any hand behind us has 13 outs with a straight/flush draw. A pot sized bet is more than sufficient to let him know we have a real hand and charge him to see a turn.

It actually doesn't surprise me that you immediately and only assume he has a Q. By your statement of pushing the flop it's obvious that you push the nuts VERY hard so that type of a raise looks to you like the nuts. But against a trickier player (which I think this guy at least thinks he is), pushing so much on the turn by no means only represents a Q.

Lloyd · #9 09-20-2005, 05:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with others that you should bet more on the flop. When he calls your small bet, you gain very little informationn, and there are way too many draws out.

Here's a thought, though: if you suspect you're now behind, why not check behind on the turn? You'll get a free shot at filling up, and stand a great chance of breaking him if you do. You might also induce a bluff on the river. And you'll keep the pot smaller so you'll more likely be able to afford to call down a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
A good point about the turn. Anytime you make a bet like that you've got to ask yourself 1) why am I betting (protect hand, extract value, bluff, see where I am, etc.); and 2) what will I do if raised. I would really hate to be check-raised by an aggressive player on the turn. I'd hate if a club came off on the river but besides that I'm either way ahead or way behind. Checking the turn and seeing what happens on the river might be the best line.

Very good point.

qbler · #10 09-20-2005, 06:03 PM

I agree that checking behind the turn might have been a better way to go (at least once I've painted myself into this corner by betting too little on the flop). If the river is a blank (no club, no boat) what's your plan if villain pots it? If he bets 1/2 pot? Pushes? The way I played it it's very dificult to put him on a tight range here, but I agree that against this particular villain the turn check/raise doesn't mean he must have a Q.