and in this corner.....weighing 265 pounds..Folding Equity!!!!!

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
If we just call the 100, there's a good chance the other two will call as well, then on any non-club turn SB will push his 520 into the 520 pot. That is generally a disaster for us with the straight flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

is it really a disaster? consider two cases:

a) push the flop and get heads up against the SB's Ax.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Jc 9c Ad
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.5354 % 53.54% 00.00% { QcTc }
Hand 2: 46.4646 % 46.46% 00.00% { As7c }

[/ QUOTE ]

pot is 120 + 620 + 620 = 1360, hero has equity 728 and he paid 620, so the +EV of pushing (vs. folding) is +108.

b) call flop and fold turn

lose 100 relative to folding flop. so you lose 208 chips when you have to fold the turn vs if you push and get HU vs SB. not exactly a disaster, since getting heads up vs SB is a pretty good result, but not some sort of amazing score. op's read is that villain almost certainly has an A and probably isn't going anywhere, so there isn't much fold equity to be had.

one third of the time you hit, and then you're getting the whole SB stack as well as a lot of chips from the donks. plus a call here lets others call or raise, both of which you're happy to see.

if you raise, you might fold out a small flush draw, which is obviously really bad (and the nut flush draw is not going anywhere, and the K-high draw probably isn't either).

i think you've got to call here.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
one third of the time you hit, and then you're getting the whole SB stack as well as a lot of chips from the donks

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure, if you hit the straight. But if nobody raises on the flop, and then a club comes on the turn, I wouldn't be too certain of getting all the SB's chips if all he has is TPWK.

[A_PLUS]

Here is a little more color on the players in the hand, and the payouts.

SB - pretty good, thinking player. If he sees the turn with an Ace, he is pushing. There is a chance he will fold to a reraise here with AX, (X<T)

2 guys behind. Both bad, neither really looks beyond their own cards, but both on the passive side. It will take a real hand for these guys to raise AQ+, 2P, sets. Im not sure they would know how strong TP + nut flush draw was in this spot.
I think any Ace calls our raise, but mid-PPs, a lot of jacks, and hands like K9, call the 100 only.

There was 18 players, payout was something like 50%, 25%, 15%, 10%. So very top heavy.

[schwza]

the fact that the later guys will call a raise with Ax and that SB may fold a bad Ax makes raising more appealing. you have a chance to steal the pot outright, and you're less likely to lose the idiots, who are really the people i want to play against.

also, mbe is right that if you flat call a club hits the SB might get away.

[Tilt]

I concur with many others that a call is in order. Even a small raise introduces the possibility that the SB might push over your raise, so they will be reluctant to call. I want their money in on the flop.

If the flop is just called around to a blank, the SB will probably push. I would just call then, also. You will probably get a caller then, too, and a cheap river card with a huge pot to play for. There is no point in doing a shutout raise for the dry sidepot.

[A_PLUS]

The flop isnt getting called around as often as you seem to think. There is an Ace on the board, it is far from a given that a player without an Ace will call off 10% of his stack, being almost certain someone else has one.

One averagge, we can assume generously that we get one caller, when we just call.

so, pot will be 400 on the turn. SB has 550 behind.
If SB pushes, you can't make this call hoping for a call from the player behind you. The river card isnt exactly cheap when they are putting in either 1/2 or 1/3 of their remaining stack to call, and know they are up against at least one real hand after our overcall.

If we just call, we have to agree to give up on the turn, if he pushes.