Semibluff push SB vs. button

betgo · #1 09-13-2005, 02:19 PM

Stars $20 rebuy blinds 200/400/50. I have T9.5K, button have T11K, ave is 16K. Button raises to 1200. I push with 86s. Button has been tight. Too dangerous?

fnurt · #2 09-13-2005, 02:25 PM

You're risking 9.5k to win 2k, with the added problem that the BB might have a hand. If the button has been tight then I don't particularly like your risk-reward ratio.

betgo · #3 09-13-2005, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're risking 9.5k to win 2k, with the added problem that the BB might have a hand. If the button has been tight then I don't particularly like your risk-reward ratio.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not really risking 9.5K. Against most pps, I lose an average of 5.3K. Against 2 higher cards, I lose an average of 1K. I don't know if 22-55 would call, but I am ahead against those and gain an average of 1.5K. If I am not called, I win 2.2K.

So I don't think the expectation is that bad. Plus my blinds are getting attacked regularly by LAGs in mid position, and I want to discourage that.

I kind of made the move automatically based on the button's position, and didn't realize how tight the button was playing. However, a tight player might be more willing to fold, and I don't care how strong villain's hand is as long as it isn't a pp.

betgo · #4 09-13-2005, 04:02 PM

Button called, showed 99, and won with a set.

I felt pretty stupid, but I suppose it is a standard play.
I may have missed a read on the button, but I assume he is not that tight that most of his button raising hands will be 66-AA, A8, or A6.

Pretty easy call for 99. He could be against a higher pair, but the push looks like a semibluff with a strong high card hand, a suited connector, or a smaller pp.

phredd · #5 09-13-2005, 06:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am not really risking 9.5K. Against most pps, I lose an average of 5.3K. Against 2 higher cards, I lose an average of 1K. I don't know if 22-55 would call, but I am ahead against those and gain an average of 1.5K. If I am not called, I win 2.2K.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, but this is way over-analyzing. Don't confuse "risk" with EV. You ARE risking 9.5K. That's what it means to push the chips in the middle of the pot. You don't "lose an average of 5.3K". You either lose the chips, or you don't. The only question is which outcome is more likely.

You are a huge dog against any PP 6, 8, or 9+, you are a moderate dog against overcards, and you are a slight dog against an underpair (don't know why you think you are ahead, there). Those describe virtually every hand a tight PF rasier could have. The only real question is how much FE you think you have against a tight player making a standard PF raise. If your own table image is tight, that might barely make it enough. Personally, I think this is a fold.

betgo · #6 09-13-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but this is way over-analyzing. Don't confuse "risk" with EV. You ARE risking 9.5K. That's what it means to push the chips in the middle of the pot. You don't "lose an average of 5.3K". You either lose the chips, or you don't. The only question is which outcome is more likely.

You are a huge dog against any PP 6, 8, or 9+, you are a moderate dog against overcards, and you are a slight dog against an underpair (don't know why you think you are ahead, there). Those describe virtually every hand a tight PF rasier could have. The only real question is how much FE you think you have against a tight player making a standard PF raise. If your own table image is tight, that might barely make it enough. Personally, I think this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

86s is behind 55, but ahead of 44-22, according the 2 dimes.

You are risking 9.5K, but you have to look at it as a 5.3K loss against an overpair, when you consider the times you beat an overpair and would up with 21.2K.

I do not disagree it was a bad play. I really wasn't factoring in this guy's tight play enough. A lot of people would be raising with stuff like K8o and frequently have to fold to the push.