Is this a spot to wait for the turn to raise?

[phredd]

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Any spade, A/K/Q/5/7/8/T on the turn will likely effect my pot equity and facing all opponents with 2BB will give them poor odds to call. So I was wondering if this was a case where it was best to pass on a small edge now to exploit a larger edge later.

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I don't think it is as much a matter of exploiting an edge as of trying to figure out a way to have any decent shot at winning the huge pot against a large field. Although I seldom think of it in the heat of battle, I think this is a perfect time to wait and raise the turn.

If you raise now, as you note, you aren't protecting anything. Anyone with half a hand has odds to call. But possibly even worse, you may induce the bettor to check to you on the turn. If a blank falls, being forced to lead out is a disaster. Now everyone will have odds to call to the river, too. You can't possibly check a turn blank, since that gives infinite odds, so you'll likely be stuck with betting out and praying that none of those profitable draws hits.

Better to call now, and raise the turn when there's a hope of folding out weaker draws. If a scare card comes on the turn, you can check and hope it is one bet back to you so you can take a shot at your four-out FH draw (I don't think the J-high, one-card flush redraw is worth much).

I think the call now, raise later strategy is best here.

[LowDown22]

Didn't read the other responses, but I would raise this flop. You have a chance to drive out the other players and get this HU. Yes, you are giving huge pot odds even with your raise, but at least you can try to drive out bigger single spade hands like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and overcard hands. Players may also incorrectly fold hands that still have enough live outs to continue.

[deception5]

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I don't think I consider the gutshot straight draws as live draws in this case.

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I tend to agree. But I do think there is a strong possibility that one of these cards will give someone a gutshot or an oesd. A 5 improves 77/88/55/78/34s/23s (depending on how low they will go).

[Aaron W.]

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[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I consider the gutshot straight draws as live draws in this case.

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I tend to agree. But I do think there is a strong possibility that one of these cards will give someone a gutshot or an oesd. A 5 improves 77/88/55/78/34s/23s (depending on how low they will go).

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How does a 5 improve those hands (particularly 77/88 -- 55 goes up to quads, but then he was crushing you already).

I would rather raise now to make it expensive for villain to pick up the first card of a backdoor draw (because his odds are much worse) than give him the first one cheap. Most of the time, they will *NOT* pick up that gutshot and you will lose the opportunity to collect from them.

Also, for the gutshot to be picked up, villain must be on 66-88 or have come in with really weak hands (like A8s). My first reaction is that these are a bit unlikely given the preflop action.

The only way you can make them draw to those hands is if villain will continue to bet into the turn after you (and everyone else) calls the flop. I don't know how likely that is (except for when he has AA-QQ, but then you're the one who is drawing).

I still think raising now is better by a good amount.

[deception5]

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How does a 5 improve those hands (particularly 77/88 -- 55 goes up to quads, but then he was crushing you already).

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad, I was thinking the board was 699 when I wrote that. Assume I meant a 6 coming down on this board [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[detruncate]

I'm in the raise now camp.

The flop lead is strange enough after the raise/call pf that I'm not going to count on a turn follow-up... and I don't think it bodes well for us when it does happen. I'll settle for facing the remaining 3 players with 2-cold + the prospect of more with both pf aggressors contesting the pot.

[IPSC]

I'm putting aside the possible flush draw right now.

There are a possible 9 outs that beat you unless you are already behind to a 9 or QQ-AA. I'm raising this flop to "hopefully" knock out SB or BB that together may be holding 3 of these overcard outs to beat us or possible backdoor flush draws.

Waiting for the turn to raise in this spot is terrible. This pot is huge already. Don't give somebody with only 3-4.5 outs a shot at winning this pot.

Your raise isn't really for value since your opponents could have around 18 outs (9 overcard plus flush draw) to beat you. The small chance of getting one or two of these guys to fold to increase your winning chances in this huge pot make raising best.

[tewall]

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise now, as you note, you aren't protecting anything. Anyone with half a hand has odds to call. But possibly even worse, you may induce the bettor to check to you on the turn. If a blank falls, being forced to lead out is a disaster. Now everyone will have odds to call to the river, too. You can't possibly check a turn blank, since that gives infinite odds, so you'll likely be stuck with betting out and praying that none of those profitable draws hits.

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An interesting point, that you may be checked to if you raise now, and then you're in a situation where you've neither protected your hand on the flop or the turn.

This hand seems quite similar to me to the SSHE example.