(22) wtf does this mean?

golfcchs · #1 11-09-2005, 03:32 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t1315)
UTG (t2070)
Button (t2356)
SB (t2259)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Button calls t300, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (t750) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t1000,

Hero?

Button has previously limped A4 UTG last level (making me fold 66 fearing a monster), but has also slowplay limped 99 in SB last hand (BB pushed over limp with K8). What do you think of the flop bet? Is he bluffing, large bet felt like bluff, or flush draw, or does he have it? Do you lead out on the flop?

splashpot · #2 11-09-2005, 03:33 AM

It means you should fold.

golfcchs · #3 11-09-2005, 03:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
It means you should fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

But then I am just giving him every pot. Also after posting the SB I will have less then 3 BB left. Cant I take some more chances here because I will be so short stacked?

splashpot · #4 11-09-2005, 03:46 AM

And your other options are good? He's obviously not going to fold. Leading a flop would require an all in. Pushing an ace high flop with bottom pair is a terrible idea. The only real option I see is pushing preflop. You said the villian limps a lot so maybe he's just seeing cheap flops. But still pushing Q5 preflop is marginal. I think there is a decent chance he calls.

golfcchs · #5 11-09-2005, 03:48 AM

Okay I know your right, but I guess in heat of battle everything seems a lot more like a bluff.

Thanks for the help.

Femto · #6 11-09-2005, 03:55 AM

I see your logic splashpot, but I'm not sure I agree with you 100%.

Villain is the big stack. Hero is the short stack. Hero checked preflop, thus it is obvious to Villain that Hero doesn't have the ace or he would have pushed preflop at this level with the size of his stack. If I were Villain, I would be throwing out a big bet in this position regardless of my cards. Literally, 100% of the time I would act in a similar manner to the way he did. As short stack, I actually think it is correct to induce a bluff here with your bottom pair with the intention of calling, if you are 100% sure he is going to bet 1) if he has the hand and 2) if he doesn't have the hand. Pushing is wrong because you give him a chance to fold a worse hand. I think you are ahead here more than 50% of the time and your chips going in the pot. Also, if you win this pot you become the chip leader and can ramp up your aggression a bit and take advantage of the bubble, pushing you closer to that 1st place victory.

Am I crazy?

splashpot · #7 11-09-2005, 03:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
As short stack, I actually think it is correct to induce a bluff here with your bottom pair with the intention of calling, if you are 100% sure he is going to bet 1) if he has the hand and 2) if he doesn't have the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Inducing bluffs is bad when the turn and river card can hurt you.

Femto · #8 11-09-2005, 04:01 AM

But if he folds, he is pretty much doomed to bust out in 4th unless he gets seriously lucky. If he calls/checkpushes, he has a decent (I said 50%, but its AT LEAST 30%, possibly 50% depending on his read of Villain's recent aggression) chance of making a massive comeback and having a shot at 1st.

splashpot · #9 11-09-2005, 04:05 AM

I never said his chances are good. They suck. All of his options suck. But seeing a showdown this hand would suck most of all. After seeing the villian bet 1000 on the flop, Hero's chances of winning this hand is far less than 50%

Femto · #10 11-09-2005, 04:19 AM

You may be right about it being less than 50%, but I think I'll respectfully disagree that folding is the lesser of two evils. As short stack slight EV gambles become more necessary, and given his current situation he only needs to win 36.4% of the time with those pot odds to break even on the hand. His 5 is 75% against overcards and 18-20% against the ace or the 9 or a pair. Assuming villian is bluffing 40% of the time here with overs and has the ace or the 9 or a 55+ pair 60% of the time,

rough win%= .4*75+.6*20 = 42%, and 42>36.4.

assuming he is only bluffing 30% of the time,

rough win%= .3*75+.7*20 = 36.5, and 36.5>36.4.

these are all very rough calculations, but I think its close enough that you have to gambool it up here.