1-2 NL Omaha 8 Turn Choice

[MHoydilla]

Preflop seat 1 ($334) limps for $2, seat 2 ($50) also limps, Hero limps with 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] A [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] K [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] ($316), sb folds BB checks. So hero has button with a 4way flop including hero. Flop comes 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] pot has ($9) then seat 1 checks, seat 2 bets $4, seat 3 calls, hero raises to $12 (4 + 8). Seat 1 folds, then seats 2 + 3 call. turn comes J [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] (5 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img]) pot has $45, Seat 2 bets $20 all in, then seat 3 raises $300 to a total of $320 to hero. This is where hero thought and thought he had 4 T's, 4 3's and any club to the nut and any low card not on the board gets him half. What would you do and dont use twodimes to cheat. By the way I just played NL OH8 4 days ago and already think its my new favorite game. I could definitaly see this game spreading in popularity and being big in future years. All comments on hand and game welcome and appreciated. thanks

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You have 9 clubs to make a flush, but two of them pair the board, and thus might not win for you. You have 6 cards for a straight (the 4c and Tc have already been counted), but the wheel might not be the best hand (for high, of course it's good for at least half the low). And then, of course, you can catch 9 other cards (any non-club 6-8) for the nut low that will win half or a quarter of the pot.

All of these do not typically add up to a call here. Even if we give you credit for every out in full, that's only 19.5 outs (9 flush, 6 straight, and 9/2 for low). There are 44 unseen cards, and you're at least a 24.5:19.5 dog. You're putting in $320 to win $385, which isn't enough. Then, when you figure that some of your outs aren't good, or will tie you for that part of the pot, it's again not enough.

The only way you could call is if you saw that he also only had draws in his hand, nothing made that was beating your hand right now (e.g., Ah3d6cKc). Even though he could be holding such a hand now, it probably won't be there enough to turn this fold into a call.

However, if you do call, it's not a huge mistake, just a mistake.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[adam74]

I might be nit-picking here, but could you clarify something for me. I'd like to comment on this, but I'm a bit confused about the way the betting has gone.

Where does 'seat 3' come from on the flop? Is the 'on-the-flop-seat 1' the pre-flop BB, meaning that the pre-flop seats 1 and 2 have now become seats 2 and 3 respectively?

If the above is right, then the turn betting is mixed up as well, with seat 2 going all-in for $20, although he started with $334, and seat 3 raising another $300 having started the hand with only $50.

I'm either being pedantic or stupid - I'm not sure which - but I'm definitely confused. [img]/forums/images/icons/confused.gif[/img]

[adam74]

And I agree with what you wrote about NLO8 - it's fantastic! I'm not sure if it'll ever gain widespread popularity, but I'll certainly take the opportunity to play it whenever I can.

[DanS]

Hi Greg,
If you change the 9 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] in hero's hand to an offsuit 4, how much does this swing things?

Thanks,
Dan

[Greg (FossilMan)]

That makes a huge difference.

He still has 9 flush cards, two of which might not be good. But, instead of 6 straight cards, he now has 14. 3 each of T, A, 3, and 6, as well as two 4s. Some of these straight cards will win all, or 3/4, or half, or 1/4 of the pot, we can't be sure. However, most of them will get him half or more. Plus, he has 6 other cards, 7s and 8s, that make him the nut low (good for half or one-quarter).

Overall, he now has the equivalent of over half the deck in his favor, and he should be glad to call the huge bet all-in. If it weren't all-in, he should probably raise all-in himself, unless he's confident he can get paid off on the river when he catches one of his outs that is good for half or more of the pot. This way he gets paid when he hits, and can fold when he misses.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[folded_a_monster]

Tough call, but I would proabably lean towards folding because there is not much in the pot worth going for besides the big bet u are facing. If there was an extra $150 in the pot i would say push because u have a decent chance to scoop and are almost definitely up against a set which would most likely mean that you get half the $320 back with a low card (unless he has something crazy like QQA3). What you also have to be aware of is the relative value of having a large stack (assuming this is an online game with a maximum buy-in), but your big stack can be useless if you choose not to play aggressively. I play the stars nl o8 game and am killing it due to my sheer aggressiveness and others' lack of knowledge of the game. Also, are there any other sites that play nl o8 that you know of besides stars?

[MHoydilla]

I ended up folding the hand. Shortly after I was questioning my self when I would have scooped on the river. I simply thought I was getting about 6-5 on my call with out near half the deck to scoop. I ran it through twodimes and found out that I needed a little less than 3-2 to call. So as fossilman stated folding was correct but calling was only a small mistake. As for other sites I love ladbrokes.com but u must not have a US addy or they will turn u away.