Refusing to chop in a mtt -EV?

[captZEEbo1]

I don't know if this is the right place to post it (it seems more fitting to me than to actually post it in mtt), but let's say I make final table in a mtt. It gets 5 handed and they want to chop. For whatever reason I don't want to chop. Are people going to be playing differently against me which will make my refusal to chop -ev? For example, people trying harder to bust you, reraising you more preflop to spite you, less likely to go bust until I go bust b/c they know they can get a chop once I'm gone? Any opinions on this? Because I might make a final table someday, and the last thing I want to do is chop unless I'm getting some amazing deal (unless of course, you guys think it's -ev to NOT chop).

[xniNja]

Depends on the chop. Deals are commonplace; it could be favorable depending on the situation.

[random]

They aren't just going to all of a sudden become a better player and outplay only you. If they change their game based on your decision, it will likely be in your best interest.

People often worry that one of their actions will cause people to start "taking shots at them." My response is, "So?" This applies more to cash games, where there is time to recognize this behavior, at which point it becomes +++EV, but it can still apply at a final table. When a lot of money is at stake people are less likely to f around. If people being mad at you is a bad thing, you should start hating all your opponents.

That said, in a big tournament, I would gladly give up a little EV for a guaranteed payout. For example, if I was heads up with a 2:1 chip lead with the blinds large, I'd try to get a good chunk of the remaining money, but if 50k was at stake, and my opponent would only agree on an even chop, I'd probably do it. If there was a HU SnG that I could sign up for that costs 25k to get in and I get 30bb to my opponents 15bb, I wouldn't do it.

I'm very surprised that there aren't chops at every big buy in tournament, especially the WSOP. Perhaps there are chops and we just don't hear about it because the TV networks want to keep it exciting. I may post about this in the WPT forum.

[Xhad]

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People often worry that one of their actions will cause people to start "taking shots at them." My response is, "So?" This applies more to cash games

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People coming after you increaes your variance, but also your cEV. Since in a cash game cEV and $EV are the same thing, this is no big deal in a cash game, but high variance is inherently -EV at a tournament final table, so this definitely applies more to tournaments.

People don't have to play better against you in a situation like this to wreck your EV, they just have to start playing pots with you out of spite since getting in a confrontation will usually be -EV. Yes, this hurts their EV too, but part of the reason fish are fish is because they act on their emotions and not on correct strategy.

Which brings me to my answer to the OP: refusal to chop can be -EV if the tournament is such that not all the bad casual players have been knocked out. When it's good players left, even if they don't like it they still have to stay out of your way if they're trying to maximise their earn. And you don't mind it if their reaction is to tighten up until you or someone else busts; weak-tight bubble play is what you're hoping for!

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I'm very surprised that there aren't chops at every big buy in tournament

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If there are chops, you wouldn't hear about it, because the big tournaments are played to completion anyway, as there are titles and POTY points to be earned.

I like the post here about refusing to chop not being -EV when up against good players. Actually, refusing to chop exhibits confidence, and may earn you a psychological advantage.

The other question you need to ask yourself is if that little bit of expectation outweighs your chances of increasing your place by not chopping. If you are third in chips out of 5, but the top 2 players have tons of chips, then you really can't be sure what place you would finish in (3-5), so I would say take the chop. But if you are a huge chip leader, you would have to lose tons of expectation in order to kill your chances of earning the maximum, an amount of expectation that is probably impossible to lose.

[LImitPlayer]

I've chopped in a MTT before and I would do it again in a heartbeat, although it depends on the deal and the player I was playing against. I've also refused to chop as well

I chopped once 60-40 in a $200 live 20 player mini tourney where only 1st place paid out. I took the 40% even tho I was a slight chip leader HU.

The player I was playing against was a local pro whos game was light years beyond mine. We both knew this and I decided 40% was better than 0

I also refused to chop in a PokerStars tourney HU when I was behind in chips against a player who I knew I could outplay.

[tek]

One consideration is game theory. Are the one or two other players asking for a deal because they are afraid to play it out and want a guaranteed payoff? In that case if you think you are atleast equal in ability to them and have been getting decent cards, I'd refuse a deal just to put psychological pressure on them.

[captZEEbo1]

I don't know if I made my original question clear or not, but nobody has really addressed it yet.

Assuming you have a fair deal or maybe even slightly better than fair (based on ICM or something), could refusing to chop be -EV b/c opponents would be playing differently to get you out faster? Or would it be +EV b/c opponents were playing differently (aka poorly) to get you out faster?

[fnord_too]

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I don't know if I made my original question clear or not, but nobody has really addressed it yet.

Assuming you have a fair deal or maybe even slightly better than fair (based on ICM or something), could refusing to chop be -EV b/c opponents would be playing differently to get you out faster? Or would it be +EV b/c opponents were playing differently (aka poorly) to get you out faster?

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I think people may be pissed at you, and may play more passively against each other if you are a short stack (thinking when you go they can deal, so why risk things). You are a big NL player, so I doubt people possibly tilting against you will lower your EV. It will probalby increase both your EV and variance.

[DonButtons]

Captzeebo,

I think since you posted in this forum, there is another reason why chops can become more +EV because of the psychology value of money of your opponents.

Lets say, its 3 to 5 handed, and everyone but you wants to chop and your top 2-3 in chips, instead of declining, this is the time to step it up and not answer back to their chat while playing very aggressive, raising and reraising preflop.

Once in awhile throw in a hello? in the chat, and this will totoally throw them way off their game, it works because there trying to get a chop in while not losing chips, so this is the perfect time to get their chips.

Also, chops vs the right opponents and it bad structures at the end are never bad, specially b/c usually your opponents want to chop so bad that if you throw in that you want more, they usually will split it between themselves to pay you extra to accept the chop. So always want more, specially online.