link with math for "poker is not rigged" argument

[PoorLawyer]

does anyone have any link to somewhere that there is math to show that the distribution of cards is about the same live or online to prove that sites don't juice the pots. I have an idiot friend who won't listen to reason and I figure since he is an accountant he may believe some hard numbers...

[kenberman]

there's 1 in the faq's

[OrangeKing]

Here's a link that will help: http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...318&Forum=
,,f14,,&Words=&Searchpage=2&Limit=25&a mp;Main=631318&Search=true
&where=bodysub&Name=1351&daterange=1&a mp;newerval=1&newertype
=y&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post 631318

[FlFishOn]

"...to prove that sites don't juice the pots."

This proof is almost impossible.

Feel free to assume they're honest but you'll never prove it.

[Sciolist]

These samples aren't massive, but:

http://tinyurl.com/4lfeg
http://tinyurl.com/2nvav

As for Fish's response, you can prove that it's not rigged to n decimal places if you have enough hands. Of course, there're always n+1 decimal places, but how is a site going to know how many decimal places players could realistically get to?

[FlFishOn]

" you can prove that it's not rigged to n decimal places if you have enough hands."

Wrong. You can establish the randomness of the cards only after examining the code that generates them. That ain't gonna happen at any site.

[Sciolist]

So if I gave you 100m hands from a site, you couldn't tell me how large n standard deviations would be for a particular amount? Let's say I gave you 100m hands and I wanted to know the chances of the figures falling in a range of 1/221 +/0 0.01% for pocket aces. That's not tricky statistical mathematics.

Obviously it's a pretty common occurance compared to things like "how often does he hit the case card to make quads with one card to come?", but all you need for that is a larger sample to get within +/- n% of the expected odds.

[stigmata]

The strongest arguments against poker being rigged are the logical ones. Why on earth would PartyPoker cheat?

[FlFishOn]

You feel free to believe whatever you want. I'll leave you with this. I know I could write a card distribution cheat that would defy detection except for Herculean statistical efforts. This cheat would be quite profitable.

I'm also near certain someone in the industry is using some variant of it, it's that easy and safe.

[MrDannimal]

If it's so easy and safe, describe it.