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Old 12-28-2005, 03:22 AM
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 12
Default Re: $33: 4 hands from yesterday\'s losing session

I think 99 here is a judgement call, but I'd definitely lean to a call. Giving him an 'average' range (44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+), this call is -EV. If he's "loose" (22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs+), it is +EV. But even with the average range, it is *barely* -EV, and he actually pushed A6s, which isn't in 'average', so you're probably right to call, even if it's very borderline. If you've seen him raise 3xBB with this stack size vis a vis the blinds, then I'd lean to folding.

2. I think you played fine, except you should have folded. I'd have put him on A2 myself. I think that massive overbet often is done specifically to look like a bluff.

3. I'd have made it 150 here. I think against a push the only hands that call you are hands you are coinflipping or worse against and the blinds are not big enough to make pushing worth the times you bust out.

4. I wait. I think it's highly likely the limper comes along, and you're a dog to almost everything they'd limp. You're on the button, so you have a couple rounds to make a push where you have some real fold equity, and where you might actually be a favorite via Ax, Kx or a PP. If not, I think you can push any 2 UTG and have better +EV. It's not as thought the player is all-in, but if we treat it like calling an all-in, since you're pushing and villain has already called enough to probably be pot-committed, I calculated it as a villain push, and your call is substantially -EV even against a maniac range. (22+, a2+, k2+, q2s+, q6o+, j7s+, j9o+, t8s+, 98s+). If you think they're weak-tight and may actually fold it that may change it, but I think it's very unlikely.
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