Value bet the turn?

[wyattjames4]

With a flush draw alone I don't have enough callers here for value. With the overcards I do - but I would think based on pre-flop action these outs are not clean. So do you bet here, or no?

youre supposed to bet to clean up your outs. the pot odds plus 3 callers make the raise at least break even, and cleaning those outs if you do hit your A or J will win you the pot instead of losing it or splitting.

[Aaron W.]

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youre supposed to bet to clean up your outs. the pot odds plus 3 callers make the raise at least break even, and cleaning those outs if you do hit your A or J will win you the pot instead of losing it or splitting.

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How does betting clean up outs here? He's not going to be outkicked, and I really doubt that there's another AJ out there to split with him. Go read this .

[Entity]

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the pot odds plus 3 callers make the raise at least break even

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Wrong. A flush draw on the turn is 4.1:1 to come in. Hero needs slightly more than what he's got to pull this bet off.

With overcards + the flush draw (probably 12 outs), you could profitably bet this with 4 potential callers if they'd all call. With 5 potential callers it's an easy bet; with 3 potential callers it's an easy check.

Rob

[wyattjames4]

Wrong. A flush draw on the turn is 4.1:1 to come in. Hero needs slightly more than what he's got to pull this bet off.

With overcards + the flush draw (probably 12 outs), you could profitably bet this with 4 potential callers if they'd all call. With 5 potential callers it's an easy bet; with 3 potential callers it's an easy check.


i disagree. if you even knock out even one player you probably raise your pot equity by 10 percent or more. thats 1.2 BB. also SB cant be taken off of a an AK or AQ or even though it is unlikely AJ. and to stop betting now just envites a straight or flush draw to bluff you out on the end.

[Aaron W.]

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if you even knock out even one player you probably raise your pot equity by 10 percent or more.

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In order for you to gain equity from the pot, you've got to be in one of three situations:

1) You have a hand that's ahead *right now*, but can lose to river cards that improve your opponents to a hand better than yours (You hold TT vs. KJ with a board of 2579).
2) You and your opponents are both second place or worse, but when you hit your out, it improves your opponent to a hand better than yours (you hold QJ vs. KJ on a 55T board and someone else holds a medium pocket pair - you "clean up" your J outs if he folds).
3) You knock out a better hand (this doesn't happen very often).

In this situation, it looks as if Hero is very likely *not* in first (ace high isn't a likely winner here), but his outs are almost certainly clean (the only possibility is AQ or AK from either the button or SB, but only the button has a reasonable chance of folding for one more bet anyway.)

I don't think Hero can get another 10% equity from this pot by folding someone out. He cleans up 2 outs *IF* the button has AQ or AK and *IF* the button folds to a bet and *IF* Hero isn't check-raised by SB when SB has a better hand. Those 2 outs correspond to less than 10% of the possible river cards (2/44 = 4.5%, ASSUMING that we know only one holds AQ or AK).

[Beavis68]

The SB could easily have an Axs where the x paired here.

[Aaron W.]

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The SB could easily have an Axs where the x paired here.

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While that's possible (dubious because of the preflop cap), SB could easily *not* be laying it down to a bet. Even if he knew he was trailing an overpair or something like that, the pot is large enough that he would be getting odds to call.

[chaz64]

I think the only way I knock anyone out on the turn is if button raises after my turn bet. He just called on the flop so I can't assume he'll co-operate. Besides which I have more outs to flush than TP and I want people in the hand if I hit that, right?