Lucky or good?

[art_vandelay]

Thanks for all the responses. They essentially confirmed what I was thinking.

Al you are right. At a minimum there is no way I should have called 6000 cold. I probably should have bet that flop. A strong bet here and he might have folded to a potential made flush.

Thanks again.

[Prickly Pete]

Al, I think your abacus is a little off. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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0.417 x 8700 - 0.583 x 6000 = 3627.90 - 3498.00 = -230.1

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I believe that should read:

0.417 x 8700 - 0.583 x 6000 = 3627.90 - 3498.00 = + 129.9

And it's only 5800 to call, not 6000. Plus as you showed, he actually had a 43.6% winrate, meaning his EV was better than that. Furthermore, AA is certainly one of the strongest holdings his oppenent can have here. An allin bet with KJ, JJ or the like is very possible, making the A7 the favorite.

I agree that he should probably bet the flop, but given the situation, I believe he has to call.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

oops I think I pulled a dyslexia and put 3267 into the calculator instead of 3627. Or something like that.

Oh well, it didn't make much of a difference in the final analysis.

The second post where I listed possible hands his opponent might hold gave a flavor for the range of possible outcomes, tho of course my list was far from comprehensive or a weighted average of the possibilities.

al

[Moonsugar]

Ok, everyone is going to tell you to fold this. However, you are only a big dog to a set or a flopped flush. I don't think most people would go all in with either of those hands after you check it. So I think it is pretty obvious you are not a big dog.

BUT, you are not a big favorite against most of the hands that he would push in with, v. QQ you should be something like 51:49 or so and should be a small dog to something like AK (not sure about that though, haven't done the sim).

So, are you willing to take pretty good pot odds on a hand that you probably have that small an edge, given the circumstances you were in? That is the question you need(ed) to answer.

The question I need YOU to answer is far more important and it is this:

ARE YOU MORE INTO THE IMPORTING OR THE EXPORTING?????

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
ARE YOU MORE INTO THE IMPORTING OR THE EXPORTING?????

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Thank you Moon for asking the important stuff.

As for the decision, I'd also remind folks that when the payout is 50-30-20, taking that close call 3-way ain't such a bad idea.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd also remind folks that when the payout is 50-30-20, taking that close call 3-way ain't such a bad idea.


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I know that's a common notion here, but I'm still not completely convinced it's true, especially if you're the big-stack, and you believe you're better than the other 2, i.e., you know you can push them off pots with aggressiveness, or outplay them post-flop. Can you please explain why am I wrong, and how does prize-structure exactly affect this? (since I would have guessed that if the structure was 70-30-10, or closer to a winner takes all, *that's* where strictly +EV decisions are more important).

PrayingMantis