Tough Calls

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

Vince started a thread about tough calling decisions, and I thought I'd throw out a couple of sample hands from a $215 SNG I played yesterday. The first was a "gut" decision. I can't really point to any specific read I had at the time on the first hand. The second involves an incredibly loose-aggressive player who gave everyone at the table fits for a long time. At one point he had 18,000 of the 27,000 chips in play. He finished 3rd.

Hand #1: Blinds are 15/30, and I have 1405. Relevant opponents have 470 (SB) and 1645 (BB). I'm dealt K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in second position (UTG+1). The table has been extremely tight, so I make it 90. SB calls, BB calls. (Pot = 270)

Flop: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I have top pair, with a marginal kicker. SB and BB check, and I make it 120. SB folds. BB calls. (Pot = 510)

Turn: [6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet 240. BB calls. (Pot = 990)

River: [6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets 210.

What do you do here? Results and my thinking in white:

<font color="white"> I didn't think he'd have called to the river with a backdoor flush draw, so unless he fell into it with some other hand, I took the flush out of the equation. He might have had a J -- AJ or JT are both hands he might have played this way -- but I would have expected him to toss in a raise at the flop, or bet out at the turn. I've put 550 into this pot already, leaving me with 865, but I don't see that much difference between 865 and 655 at this point. I call. He turns up 77 and my top two pair is good. </font>

Hand #2: Blinds are 50/100, and I'm on the button with 1980. The player to my immediate right is the ultimate maniac, betting everyone out of every pot. He has 5240. The BB has 1510. I'm dealt J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It's folded to the maniac, who min-raises to 200. I call. BB calls. (Pot = 650)

Flop: J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I have middle pair, a weak kicker, and two backdoor draws. Not the greatest hand I've ever seen. BB checks, maniac bets 500, and I raise it to 1000, expecting he'll fold his hand right there. BB folds. Maniac calls. Hrmmmmm.... (Pot = 2650)

Turn: [J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Maniac pushes all-in. I have 780 left.

What do you do here? Results and my thoughts in white.

<font color="white"> At this point, I've seen him make this same move on almost every hand, and I just don't believe he has that King. I call, and he turns up 94o!!! My Jacks stand up, and I double through. </font>

BTW, after this I kinda went into a turtle shell for much of the rest of the tournament. The UberManiac continued on with his UberMania, and I let other people take their shots at him. He caught incredibly lucky draws to beat better hands, and I figured it was better to wait for someone (I'd like it to be me, of course) to catch AA or KK. Well, it wasn't me, but he did run into AA on successive hands, and that chopped his monster stack way way down. Once it was down to three-handed, I was able to bust him with JJ vs. his A4o, and finish 2nd.

But it was a MADDENING 2nd, because of his insane play, and for the rest of the tourney I found myself thinking: "You made too very questionable calls already; don't push your luck."

Cris

[TheGrifter]

I think both calls are fine, however, I question the flop decisions.

In the first hand you're betting less than half the pot and pricing in too many hands, I don't consider a queen to be a "marginal" kicker. I say overbet the pot right there say to 300 and take it down (You also underbet the pot on the turn and gave your opponent 3-1 on calls on both streets).

Hand 2 I like the call preflop against the maniac's min. raise but I just abhor the flop raise. Even maniacs get hands sometimes and you just can't gamble that he doesn't have you beat here. You're basically committing yourself completely to this pot with second pair marginal kicker.

That said, I would of course call as well on hand 2, you're in now (and he is a maniac!).

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on the flop play.

Nice job on the 2nd place,

Grifter

[Al_Capone_Junior]

In both of these hands I fully agree calling was the proper move.

the first hand, it was somewhat questionable but not nearly enough so to make it right to fold, therefore you have to call.

the second hand, you simply gotta call maniacs down sometimes, and this was clearly one of those times.

al

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[ QUOTE ]
You also underbet the pot on the turn and gave your opponent 3-1 on calls on both streets

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I rarely give my opponents better than 2:1 (pot sized bet), sometimes I give them much less tho.

al

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Grifter,

[ QUOTE ]
In the first hand you're betting less than half the pot and pricing in too many hands, I don't consider a queen to be a "marginal" kicker. I say overbet the pot right there say to 300 and take it down (You also underbet the pot on the turn and gave your opponent 3-1 on calls on both streets).

[/ QUOTE ]

In general -- and this is certainly not universal truth -- you see fewer pot-sized bets in the higher buy-ins, because people are less likely to chase draws. Yes, I gave him 3:1 to call at the flop, but the only hand for which that would have been sufficient to justify a call would be QT (with an open-ended straight draw). I didn't think that was a very likely calling hand, so I wasn't worried about pricing out the draws so much as not overplaying an iffy hand.

In the second hand, the flop raise was because he had put in a big bet a couple of times and mucked to a raise, and that's what I figured he would do here. I was surprised when he called and really sweated my call at the turn.

I still think both of my calls were speculative, and I'm not sure if I'd make them again. I'm not presenting these as well-played hands; I'm not at all convinced they were. I think I just got lucky here.

Cris

[TheGrifter]

Hey Chris,

In NL many good/decent players (this is in my experience only) seem to be willing to "stick around" with hands that stand a good chance to improve even if they may not have the exact odds.

They do this in the belief that an edge in skill allows them to get paid off when they hit, making many more calls positive EV.

This is why I feel, in my game, that it is important to constantly push a good, but not great hand. Obviously you don't want to go to the felt with KQ, but you do want to win the pot and a larger bet gives you the best chance to do so. These are my feelings only, and I would be interested in a discussion on the topic.

In the second hand I cannot really comment too far because I assume you had your reasons for believing you had the best hand against this particular player in this particular situation...sometimes there's nothing like being there.

Anyway, not sure how much sense this post makes, I'm multi-tabling and trying to be as clear as possible...

Grifter

[Guy McSucker]

In the first hand, his bet is inconsistent with almost any hand that beats yours.

- If he thought you were bluffing all the way, and he has something, why bet?

- If he thought you had something and he has just made an unlikely outdraw, again, why bet, and if you're betting, why bet so small? It seems likely you'll bet again if you have a hand, so he can check-raise; and if he doesn't want to take that risk, but believes you have a hand, he must think you're likely to call almost any decent bet.

It's too small a bet to be a stone cold bluff, too, so almost the only thing it can be is a "cheap showdown" bet: he has something and wants to see your cards for only a small amount more.

I think you have a clear call here, provided this player is actually thinking about what you're holding. I'm assuming they do that sort of thing in the $200 SNGs, but I am prepared to believe anything.

Guy.

[AJo Go All In]

i'm very confused by this post. these were not tough calls at all.

in the first hand, your opponent made a ridiculously small river bet, which doesn't indicate any sort of hand (what it indicates to me is that he sought a cheap showdown with a weak hand), and even if it did, you are getting almost 6-1 to call the river! to even think about folding here would be insanity.

in the second hand, your hand is weaker, yes, but the tough decision here happened on the flop. you decided to commit your stack to the hand. fine. so how is the turn decision tough? you already made it! and you're getting somewhere around 4.5-1 to call this one. again folding here would be madness, especially against the player you describe. (by the way, you should raise all-in on the flop if you choose to continue with the hand. did you plan on folding if he came over the top of you on the flop? and how often does a maniac fold for the minimum raise?).

i haven't read the other responses, but i am just completely confounded. in my opinion neither of these calls should have been tough decisions for you. rather, you should have made them immediately.

[Moonsugar]

In regards to the preflop play on hand #1 I think it is great. At a tight table you play a weaker than normal hand but you play it exactly like you would a normal opening hand. So, if 3x the blind is Cris' standard open I think it is the right bet to bet 90. If you bet QQ 90 and you bet KQ 300 then I am going to destroy you as soon as I learn that.

Oh, and KQ IS a marginal hand in a full table NL UTG+1 IMO.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya AJ,

[ QUOTE ]
in the first hand, your opponent made a ridiculously small river bet, which doesn't indicate any sort of hand (what it indicates to me is that he sought a cheap showdown with a weak hand), and even if it did, you are getting almost 6-1 to call the river! to even think about folding here would be insanity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Color me insane, because I seriously considered folding when the second J fell. I began to think I'd been sucked in by KJ, or that Jx (AJ, QJ, JT) had hung around with the second pair. It looked a whole lot like a bet that wanted a call, and most of the time when a bet wants a call, it's a mistake to oblige. Perhaps it's that players are prone to trap a whole lot more (and better) at the higher buy-ins, or maybe I'd just been stung by one too many monsters under the bed, but I seriously considered mucking here, and still am not convinced this was a "smart" call (despite the results).

[ QUOTE ]
in the second hand, your hand is weaker, yes, but the tough decision here happened on the flop. you decided to commit your stack to the hand. fine. so how is the turn decision tough? you already made it! and you're getting somewhere around 4.5-1 to call this one. again folding here would be madness, especially against the player you describe. (by the way, you should raise all-in on the flop if you choose to continue with the hand. did you plan on folding if he came over the top of you on the flop? and how often does a maniac fold for the minimum raise?).

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, he'd folded to a minimum raise twice in the past orbit, so there was some history. When I raise and get called, I seriously reassess my hand and whether I am ahead. When I raise and get called, and my opponent goes all-in on the next betting round, 99.9% of the time I'll lay down the hand. This was the 0.1%, and only because he was such a maniac (played 56% of the hands in that tourney).

Again, as a general rule, at the higher buy-ins, people try to avoid all-in confrontations. Having put $215 into a SNG that can easily take an hour or more to fill, people don't treat these SNGs as being quite so fungible, and survival plays more heavily into decisions.

Cris