Desperation part 2

[mlagoo]

that sounds like fuzzy math

[ZeroPointMachine]

[ QUOTE ]
hand 1: it's too late for you now...with those maniacs and being utg, u have hardly any FE...u shoulda gone in earlier, unless everyone raised before you, in which case you were just screwed...at this point, u probably have to push tho, as you will be bb next and down to 300 and then 225, and u'll have to double up just to get back to where u are now...so this is your last chance at making a stand, but they know that, plus are maniacs, so u are gonna get called

hand 2: see above

hand 3: push...u have 2 folders at least...and your positioning is about to get even worse...i'd prolly push worse than k3o here

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this 100%

Best answer is avoid #1 & #2 by doing #3 earlier [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

position is so much more important than is your 87 suited or not

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
that sounds like fuzzy math

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What I'm saying is that if a hand such as AQo calls your T7o, you're about a 65-35 dog. If you're suited, you're only a 61-39 dog. That is a BIG difference. The difference between winning the hand 35% of the time and winning 39% of the time is 11%. Nothing fuzzy about it.

[Moonsugar]

Unless you are playing in the $109 or higher, or in a really big stack or really short stack situation the range that 'people' will call with is very very tight.

There are exceptions of course.

[45suited]

Which example are you referring to? The T7s example will be called by a wide range of hands, especially at a lower buy-in.

[Moonsugar]

I am speaking in general.

In the examples listed the problem is you are facing so many actors behind that the collective tightness, and your short stack, add up to looseness. But, as you allude to that looseness has a fondness for Ax not 8x so you are less likely to be dominated with 87 than A2, even though there is now possibility of overpairs to your high card. If you get called you will almost never be ahead, but you will probably have a better chance of sucking out. The blinds have to be VERY HIGH relative to your stack to want to push with either A2 or 87 here and if they are high enough you have to push with either, regardless.

I don't know the stack size:blind ratios and number of players left scenarios where I would fold A2 but push 87, do you?

[Moonsugar]

I started a thread about 5-6 weeks ago about how much EV 'according to ICM' would you give up since you were going to take the BB next hand. Phil Van Sexton had already done some analysis of his PT database and it seems that in situations like these you can do a push that 'costs' ~1% ICMEV. Small sample size disclaimer yada yada yada.

[EverettKings]

How do you always manage to end up UTG super short stacked? Maybe you didnt have the chance (god awful cards, raised pots, etc) but you should really look to pull your desperate moves in LP. You seem to be in this spot a lot.

On to the hands

Hand 1 I go.
Since youre going to be auto-allinned in the next BB basically, if you see anything worthy here you should go. T7s suits me just fine. Offsuit I probably fold, because it's not really any better than two random cards (in which case I shoulda just pushed any two a few hands ago). I'm sorta expecting a call, and being suited is a big help in sucking out. It's usually good for 5% equity ish.

Hand 2 I pass
8 way, and you have enough chips to wiggle a little. Whereas in hand 1 the blinds represented half of your stack, here I don't think you're quite short enough for this.

Hand 3 I push, and hope the SB doesn't have anything.
There are 5 people behind you, but 4 of them are medium short, and really don't want to call. If they were really short or really big they'd loosen their ranges, but you cripple anyone who calls you and none of them are so deperate that they have to go with A3 or K6s.

Kings

[good2cu]

I think that the first two are both going to be -EV, your simply going to get called too often (50%+) of the time. But I would push them both without the question. The problem is if you get both your blinds stolen which is quite likly your losing a large portion of the stack, and then when you do move in with a better hand you have less FE and even if you double up you really don't win that many chips. So I push here 90% of time. Also push #3 unless your table image is already shot. I hope this made sense.

Conculsion: Pushing here is proibaly -EV, but not as -EV as waiting for the blinds to eat your stack.

[bluewilde]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing here is proibaly -EV, but not as -EV as waiting for the blinds to eat your stack.

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I think that's the crux of it. Screw what I said about K7/T7. Regardless of what might be a better situation (but thanks for calling me out on that), I think pushing is your best option for the situation you're in--desperate as you describe it. By not taking advantage of better (though still very marginal) opportunities earlier, your hand is forced here, and I don't deny it's likely -EV.