AKo played right against limp/raiser? Party 25NL

[scdavis0]

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fold preflop.

2/3 of the time you don't flop anything and you have to fold to his flop bet, 1/3 the time you flop it but a portion of that 1/3 he has you dominated even when you flopped it.

think about how wide villain's range for limp reraising has to be to make the preflop call profitable.

hint : it has to be wider than AA-JJ, AK.

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Not if he'll call off his whole stack when you out flop him.

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this is very rarely the case and you don't outflop him and win at showdown very often.

I will do a rough calculation. 1/3 of the time we flop a pair. assuming his range is AA-JJ, AK. lets remove AK for the benefit of this discussion. due to you holding AK, its more likely for villain to hold QQ, JJ. we'll say 75% o the time he has QQ, JJ. as been rigorously analyzed in the Mason thread in MHNL, the times you flop a pair without him flopping a set is about 29%. the times you flop a pair and he doesn't set by the river is 26%. you take the 26% and multiply by the the 75% that he actually has QQ, JJ and you get roughly 19.5 %.

so 19.5% of the time you win his stack, 67% of the time you check fold the flop, and the rest you lose your stack.

preflop is a fold.

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I disagree that it is "very rarely the case". I've posted two hands on this board (one at $400 NL) where I stacked someone for a full buy in or more with AK against QQ on an Axx flop.

Both times I emphasized the amazing implied odds associated with calling a re-raise with AK and flopping top pair. Both times I was basically laughed at because it was obvious that my play was only accidentally correct because of how "lucky" I was that my opponents were so bad (despite the fact that almost all the money that you will make in your poker career will be against the WEAKEST players in every game you play).

I'll call a re-raise all day with an AK with importance given to:

1. Is my opponent bad/tilty?
2. Am I likely to be able to figure out what's going on post flop?
3. Do I have position?
4. Am I suited?

[amoeba]

yes it happens that you stack somebody when we make top pair.

but we have to compare the amount we make when we stack somebody (which is not neccesarily a given but I've granted that that was the case in my calculations) vs the times that we get stacked either because we got sucked out on, because villain had AA/kk, or because villain flopped the set + the huge number of times that we have to fold the flop when we miss.

[scdavis0]

Just making the point that I think "it depends" is the right answer when it comes to calling a re-raise with AK pre flop.

And that good players have trouble fathoming how much action they might get with one pair.

I think we all remember those times we read the guy for KK/QQ when an A flops and we run the "perfect" bluff and he just vomit calls anyway.