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#1
05-17-2005, 12:55 PM
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FOLD AA PREFLOP????
Now that I have your attention...
I've decided to pose the most useless, hypothetical problem that has had me thinking for several days. There has very little relevance, but I thought it would be interesting to see some answers. Here's the deal. First hand of a Party SNG. (We'll say a $55). Start with 1000 chips. You are in BB with AA. Scenario A: Folded to SB who pushes. Scenario B: UTG pushes. Everyone around the table calls. You are last to act. Scenario A is an obvious call. You're about 80% or so to double up and greatly increase your chances of making the money. Scenario B is a clear fold. By folding, you're just about guaranteed to take second place(barring some weird-ass split). If you call, you'll come in first about 30% of the time, and be knocked out about 70%. Clearly, it is +EV to fold. Where do you draw the line? In other words. The first (9-x) people fold, and the remaining X players push. At what value x and x+1 do you call and fold respectively? Assume all players are of average ability near the bubble, ITM, and HU. Also assume that players hold any two. The SB is as likely to call an all-in with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] as he is to call with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I'm curious if anyone can do the math for this. 
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#3
05-17-2005, 01:06 PM
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Re: FOLD AA PREFLOP????
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Strassa previously posted this two days ago: Thinking about situations like these makes you a worse poker player. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Thinking about poker makes me a worse player? I haven't been around much lately, I'll have to find his post and figure out what he was talking about.
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#4
05-17-2005, 01:18 PM
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Re: FOLD AA PREFLOP????
This is a pretty pointless excercise, but the calculation is easy, so I'll oblige.
ASSUMPTIONS: no ties, all players are equally skilled, no blinds, "big stack" advantage is negligible as far as blind stealing All-In Opponents - Chance of Winning - ICM if win - ICM if Fold - Call EV 1 85.2% 0.1844 0.1000 0.1571 2 73.5% 0.2550 0.1019 0.1874 3 63.8% 0.3133 0.1064 0.1999 4 55.9% 0.3611 0.1144 0.2019 5 49.2% 0.4000 0.1278 0.1968 6 43.5% 0.4317 0.1500 0.1878 7 38.7% 0.4578 0.1894 0.1772 8 34.7% 0.4800 0.2711 0.1666 9 31.1% 0.5000 0.3200 0.1555 Therefore, you should call if six random hands push in before you, but fold if seven do. Boy... that's practical!
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#7
05-17-2005, 01:24 PM
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Re: FOLD AA PREFLOP????
I can safely say that thinking about something like this (determining the EV by calling with AA after 9 pushers) would help me learn EV when I was first starting out. Is it necessarily "helpful" to me now? No, probably not. But I highly doubt, regardless of what strassa, (who would wipe the floor with me) says, that it makes me a "worse" player. I would say that anything that gets you thinking about EV, however irrelevant, can do no worse than give you a better understanding of the game.
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#8
05-17-2005, 01:29 PM
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Re: FOLD AA PREFLOP????
I agree, as long as you don't end up folding Aces inappropriately because you are in a similar situation, but not similar enough, and you have that thought in mind.
For some reason, I'm just being argumentative this morning. Procrastination. I have a lot of work I don't want to do.
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#10
05-17-2005, 02:15 PM
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Re: FOLD AA PREFLOP????
[ QUOTE ]
I agree, as long as you don't end up folding Aces inappropriately because you are in a similar situation, but not similar enough, and you have that thought in mind. [/ QUOTE ] I have never folded AA or KK and never plan on doing so barring incredibly unusual circumstances (satellite, incredible read) [ QUOTE ] For some reason, I'm just being argumentative this morning. Procrastination. I have a lot of work I don't want to do. [/ QUOTE ] No qualms here. I like when people prove me wrong. It means I became that much smarter.
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