Marginal Hand #3 Bad call here? - Page 4

bottomset · #31 04-14-2005, 03:18 PM

since we didn't fold the turn

I'm just calling the river, hoping MP3 comes along .. its the safer approach, raising here will get you 3bet by hands that beat you, and often won't get paidoff by hands you beat .. plus it drive mp3out

grjr · #32 04-14-2005, 03:40 PM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
CO has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.50 BB. 

So I lucked out and my 8 outs were good afterall. Even after thinking about it for a while I believe I still call the turn. Seems like I have just enough outs to call with the implied odds added in.

I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake. Especially on marginal flop calls.

pyedog · #33 04-14-2005, 04:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
CO has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.50 BB. 

So I lucked out and my 8 outs were good afterall. Even after thinking about it for a while I believe I still call the turn. Seems like I have just enough outs to call with the implied odds added in.

I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake. Especially on marginal flop calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure where you're getting the 8 outs from. He had a King, so hitting a nine on the river would have only cost you money. You had at most two outs to the ten and three outs to the 8. However, there's a chance that MP3 was on a flush draw and so two of those outs would have been dead also, and would have cost you more money on the river. Anyways, on the turn you had between 3 and 5 outs, let's say 4 on average, so you weren't quite justified calling the turn bet unless you knew that MP3 was going to call as well (note that he could have check raised here).

The implied odds aren't too significant on the turn because none of your outs give you much confidence, so regardless of whether you hit a 9, 10 or an 8 you can't really raise the river to get a lot of value for making your hand. Expecting to earn one extra BB from an opponent on the river is reasonable, but it has to be counterbalanced with the times you will make a second best hand on the river and still call an additional bet. So you might be overestimating the implied odds on the turn when drawing to a marginal hand.

grjr · #34 04-14-2005, 04:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure where you're getting the 8 outs from.

[/ QUOTE ]

I KNEW I worded that poorly and someone would misunderstand. What I meant was my outs if an 8 hit were actually good (although there was no way to know that in advance).

jrz1972 · #35 04-14-2005, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

What implied odds? When you "hit" your hand, all you got was a measley 1 BB out of Villian. That sucks.

If anything, what you've illustrated is a "reverse implied odds" situation. You hit your hand on the river, but you still weren't in a position to bet it aggressively and collect extra bets from your opponent. That's the opposite of what people mean when they add in implied odds to justify an earlier call.

mvoss · #36 04-14-2005, 05:22 PM

I'd fold this one. CO could be trying to steal the blinds but you really don't know, and you haven't gt a very good hand.

Entity · #37 04-14-2005, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO raises, Button calls, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds.

Final Pot: 12.50 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 8h Th (two pair, tens and eights).
CO has Kh Kc (one pair, kings).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.50 BB. 

So I lucked out and my 8 outs were good afterall. Even after thinking about it for a while I believe I still call the turn. Seems like I have just enough outs to call with the implied odds added in.

I notice a lot of you guys don't add the implied odds to your calculations. I think that's a pretty big mistake. Especially on marginal flop calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your call was profitable by the thinnest of margins -- you had a 5 outer getting 8.5:1 with the possibility of it being raised behind you. You got a bit lucky this time.

In the future, I'd say your weighted outs put this closer to a 3 outer, given that you'll frequently be drawing dead, occasionally be drawing to 9ish outs, and often be drawing to 4 outs. Even if we were to bump the estimates up and give you 4 outs on the whole, the fact that you aren't closing the action on this turn with bottom pair and a gutshot makes it a good time to fold.

I will also say that your preflop call is less sound if you routinely make calls like this on the turn. You seem to overvalue your outs frequently on the turn.

Rob

HiatusOver · #38 04-14-2005, 05:26 PM

This is a very easy pre-flop fold. If you are in the Big Blind u can call

Entity · #39 04-14-2005, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very easy pre-flop fold. If you are in the Big Blind u can call

[/ QUOTE ]

This is far from an easy fold at these limits, against these opponents, especially in a 1/2 structure. Getting somewhere between 6-7:1 on the preflop call with good relative position and some donks in between, it's ok.

Rob

grjr · #40 04-14-2005, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I will also say that your preflop call is less sound if you routinely make calls like this on the turn. You seem to overvalue your outs frequently on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, like I said at the beginning I realize this was probably a bad call on the turn. I made a snap judgement and decided to call. Like I said earlier, I play a lot of hands on 4 tables so I'm usually not going to figure out exact clean and dirty outs. If you're off by 1 out (which is a guesstimate anyways because you don't KNOW what the other player has) then I don't think that would be a "serious" leak--at least not at this level.