The hand that cost me the chip lead in a MTT last night

[Gomez22]

UB $5+$.50 $500 added MTT

I didn't put this hand into the other post I made because in a way it wasn't relative to busting me out... it was a fold that I made that I'm not sure was right. Take a look at the hand and then let me explain(chip counts are going to be approximate, as I didn't get the HH, but this is mostly burned into my mind)

We're to final 2 tables, I think there were 16 players left(7 at our table). Money doesn't get big until final 4. I am in great shape with T40000 chips(3rd at our table) and I think at this point I was 8th overall.

I'm SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I think blinds were 2000/4000

Relavent villains:

UTG(LAG... had been raising 3.5 times the BB every 3 outof 4 hands - he had 25000 left and his chips were as good as mine).

UTG+1(Tournament chip leader with about 100000 in chips. He used his stack well[from what I could tell] and was a player I didn't want to tangle with until the final table...

On to the hand:

Like I said, I'm SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 40000 in chips. I think the blinds were 2000/4000.

UTG(25000) open raises to 7000, UTG+1 re-raises to 20000, it's folded to me. This is what I thought:

The chances of UTG having a hand were slim as he had been raising with all sorts of garbage from any position to try and buy the blinds.

UTG+1 was a player that, personally, I thought was trying to isolate here. I figured IF he held a big hand(Personally, I felt a mid-PP to be more realistic here, as I hadn't yet seen him re-raise with 2 big cards, and we have played about 60 hands together), he would have made a bigger raise to ensure that he kept UTG to himself, or he would have smooth-called, thinking that the rest of us weren't going to interfere, and he could get UTG to bluff his chips off.

I thought and went into the tank on this call, and finally folded after telling myself that I should push here, but a better chane would come along soon...

UTG pushed, UTG+1 called.

UTG showed K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG+1 showed pocket 8's

(I gotta learn to trust my reads more)

FLOP: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
TURN: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
RIVER: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I don't want to be results oriented here, and it's not that I am(although) I would have won at LEAST 40000 and doubled up... maybe more. The thing that bothers me is that I had a read that was good(great, I daresay) and failed to act on it. If nothing else here, I could have flat called PF and pushed on the flop.....

I'm still kicking myself for not acting on a read that I had, but had no confidence in.

How long until I can trust my reads?

[fnurt]

"Trust your read"? You correctly figured that you were being asked to bet half your stack on a coinflip and you stayed out. There is no way you want to tangle with the chip leader in this situation.

The flop is not God's way of telling you that you should have played. In hindsight you would have won, but that's no more significant than if you held 72o and the flop was 722.

Repeat it to yourself a million times, stay away from the chip leader, at least until you have a much better situation than this one.

[Gomez22]

[ QUOTE ]
Repeat it to yourself a million times, stay away from the chip leader, at least until you have a much better situation than this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what I did last night..... I know I may be talking outta my a$$ here, but considering that the money didn't get "big" until the top 4 spots, would it never be appropriate to take a chance in a situation like this?

I can't think it's a +EV situation, but are there ever times to take a -EV situation if what you're going for is a top-3 finish?

At this point, I just wanted to make the final table, as I have never done so. When I got there, all I could think about was this hand and how instead of struggling for 8th or 9th place, I could/would have been in a position for 1st-3rd.

To me, my talk here sounds like a typical 3rd grade question, but it really got me thinking about payouts and risk versus reward in top-heavy tournaments.

BTW - I got $39.05 for 10th, while 9th was $45.50, and 8th was $52.20. 4th paid $107, and 1st was $1050.

[TheDrone]

fnurt,

I definitely agree with your post. However, I wanted to point out that although he would be a slight preflop favorite (38.71% to win according to twodimes), this is not really a coinflip against two opponents. Unless you have a three-sided coin [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[fnurt]

Well you talk like this is your only chance to accumulate some chips. It's not like in 8th place with 2 tables left you're desperate to play now or never.

You probably do need to win a few gambles to enjoy a top finish. But it's far better to take those gambles against the small stacks, who are often desperate and playing marginal cards, rather than risk it all against the chip leader.

If the flop was 883, wouldn't you be congratulating yourself on having dodged a bullet here? Stop kicking yourself just because the cards happened to come out a certain way after the fact.

[Aloysius]

I think fnurt was assuming that if Gomez pushed out of the SB, UTG would have folded his K7s, getting him heads up with AJ vs. pocket 8s. (I can't imagine UTG calling his whole stack off with that hand.) A normal 2-sided coin would suffice in this situation.

Though what was UTG thinking pushing when it was just another T5000 for the chip leader to call?

To Gomez's hand - Chip leader would be getting around 5:2 to call your all-in. If he does have a premium type hand, you know you're either even-money or dominated. Most of the time he's calling your all-in with a coinflip at worst. Not a great spot to pick, I'd have to say nice laydown preflop.

If you had enough chips to really threaten his stack, I might make that move, but again, you'd have to feel pretty confident about your read.

[Gomez22]

What I was thinking here was this:

The money didn't really escalate until the top 4 places, and even IF I just cold-called this or pushed PF, I thought I was in a position to get about 2.5-1 on my money here, as I was almost positive both would call if I had pushed.

AFTER the tournament was over, this thought entered my mind, but at the time, I just wanted to get to the final table because I had never made one before. If I would have busted out on THIS hand, I would have won something like $22 or $24. Considering I won $39 the way I finished, and looking back on it, I think that taking a risk in this spot with a much better than average hand would have placed me in a good position to make a charge for a top money position(if I win, of course)....

My thinking of this hand is in hindsight now, but I'm wondering if my thought process is wrong.....

[Aloysius]

I'm guess I'm not sure why you believe UTG would call off his whole stack (another T18k) with Kxs. Though I guess if he pushed and it was only T5K for chip leader to call, it stands to reason he'd do it.

I understand your overall point (how much better a situation can you wait for, when winning would put you into great shape?). I just think there's too high a chance that you could be dominated. You described UTG+1 as a strong player, I'd give him credit for a hand and move on. On an 8-person table, I don't like to push with AQ, unless there's a good chance everyone folds.

Most of the times you'll be a coin-flip or dominated (a situation I don't care for when I'm in 3rd with 16 players left) and very rarely ahead.

Not sure if I addressed your question, but I just can't justify pushing in this situation when I know I'm getting called not just by 1 but maybe 2 players, 1 of whom I know has a hand.

[Morbo]

Think of it like this: would you played it otherwise if you knew what UTG+1 had?

[Gomez22]

IF I knew that UTG had an underpair to my 2 suited overcards, and could be getting 1.5-1.7 to 1 on my call that, if I win, I'm going to be in great shape to place in the top 3-4 of a top-heavy tournament whereas the places I'm in right now are those that the money does not increment much each step up, I would be more inclined to push here and take my chances to get into the big money rather than play it safe and "end up" in a lower payout area.

Thing is, we can never know these situations until after the fact... As soon as I saw their hole cards flipped over before the flop came, I was cursing myself a little for not at least calling and seeing the flop(or in this case, calling, then pushing).

I'm NOW thinking of it as a missed opportunity.

It's not to say that I couldn't have gotten aces, kings, queens, or another premium hand dealt to me in the next few hands, but the way I look at it now(which I don't know if it is correct top-heavy tourney thinking), I was risking the current prize level(~$24) for an opporntunity at 1st through 4th money(1st was ~$1000, 2nd was ~$700, 3rd was ~$400, 4th was ~$100)....

Of course, this assumes I know he has an underpair(which I thought was a very good possibility at the time).