Turn semi-bluff

[Spicymoose]

This is a line I think krishan suggested in some other thread. I think the situation is similar, but it is not identical.

Villain is a bit agro.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

[climber]

Well its obviously a bit of a gamble...it would depend a lot for me on the villains went to showdown % whether or not I'd do this. With my only read being "a bit aggro" i prob dont pull this move.

Once he bets there are 6.25BB in the pot and you have to put in 2BB to try this. However I'm just not sure he folds often enough. and it blows to pay 3-bets to hopefully be drawing live to somethign that is only gonna hit 1 in 4.

I like the 9 flush outs but I think your ace outs have to be discounted at least somewhat...maybe 1.5 instead of 3. Maybe 1 or 1.5 also on your 6 outs. So I'd say 12 outs max. So about 25% chance you will improve on the river to the hopefully winning hand--not counting the times he 3 bet you with KK, JJ or 77 and you are drawing dead.