QT suited, raised and reraised behind me

Notorious G.O.B. · #1 06-14-2005, 06:20 AM

Who calls the two bets cold preflop here, after limping? I probably should have, I guess, I just thought I was pretty much dead beyond making a straight or flush. Button had AQ, MP3 had pocket fives.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button raises, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button caps, SB calls, BB calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (21 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, MP3 checks, CO bets, Button raises, SB calls, BB folds, MP3 calls, CO 3-bets, Button calls, SB calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (16.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, Button bets, SB folds, MP3 raises, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (22.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP3 bets, CO folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 24.50 BB

Petteri · #2 06-14-2005, 06:24 AM

Unless table is very loose-passive limping with QTs from UTG+1 is questinable play. Folding to 3-bet is correct play.

toss · #3 06-14-2005, 06:39 AM

Limping QTs is perfectly fine if the table is loose. Folding to the 3-bet is only correct if you're sure its going to be less than 4 to the flop.

aK13 · #4 06-14-2005, 06:53 AM

I think folding when it comes back around to you is awful.

mute · #5 06-14-2005, 06:53 AM

You are getting 10:2 on your call, which I think is enough. It could get capped behind you, but on average one of the limpers will probably call as well, which would make your odds 16:3.

I call.

EDIT: BTW if buttons AQ wasn't suited remember to make a note.

jskills · #6 06-14-2005, 09:17 AM

Easy fold.

Sifmole · #7 06-14-2005, 11:09 AM

I don't see much attempt at analysis in the responses -- I guess this is the degeneration of the forum that people are talking about.

1) Limping UTG+1 with QTs is not questionable, its pretty standard. And if you don't you probably are playing a bit too tight.

2) Most responses seem to be focusing on getting to the flop -- so what? Why are we seeing the flop? and if we get what we are looking for what then?

So I thought I would give this a shot....

Pre-flop
------------
It comes back to us with 10SB in the pot and 6 players still holding cards. We can be pretty sure that Button and BB are coming along and that it is going to be capped. I would figure we can make the assumption that SB is coming along as well ( called 2 cold already ); but lets assume that MP3 and CO both drop out. So where do these assumptions put us?

(3*4SB)+3 = 15SB and we need to put in 3 more
odds are 5:1

So what are we looking for? We can probably figure that pair and two pair are looking weak against this group -- so lets say only a flush or straight are good. I realize a set --might-- be good, but it could also be a recipe for disaster. and quads, lets just leave those out. To make the figuring simple lets see if we can justify this by the flush alone.

Odds of flopping a flush draw: 8:1

And we have 5:1 odds, not enough to justify it really; but lets think about the implied odds in a potential monster pot that may well be coming. As well, the added chances of our straight, and a monster flop like a boat decrease the difference in odds.

Flop
-----------
Its easy to let go if we don't flop our flush or straight draw, two pair may well get us in trouble by looking good but ending up brutal. As before I said I wanted to look at it from the flush draw perspective, so lets assume that unless we get it we bail to any significant show of strength. Ignoring that we would of course stick around with two pair if the betting settled down. But lets assume that these guys don't settle down and we get our flush draw.

Assumptions:
Flush draw, and we are going to face a capped flop, and we lose the SB w/o a bet.

18SB pot + 8SB = 26 SB vs our 4SB ( odds 6.5:1 )

We are 4:1 to make our flush on the next card and just under 2:1 to make it by the river. If we are going to call here, we are going to have to go to the river. We have plenty of odds to make the call for one card, how bad would it be to go to the river?

Turn
--------------
figure we lose nobody, capped, and don't get our flush

30SB = 15BB pot

15BB + 8BB = 23BB vs. our 4BB ( odds just 5.75:1 )

So even on the turn we would have plenty of odds to call.

===========================

So, I don't think this is an "easy fold" when it gets back to us Pre-flop even figuring that we are facing a cap. The scenario above figures in significant aggression and we still get plenty of good implied odds.

What if our opponents calm down on the flop?
---------------------------------------------
Figure a flush draw, we lose SB, but only 2 bets

18 SB pot + 4 SB = 22 SB vs our 2 SB ( odds 11:1 )

So that just makes things better.

Add in a calmer turn
Turn
----------------
Assume two bets

22SB = 11BB pot

11BB + 4BB = 15BB vs. our 2BB ( odds 7:1 )

What if the cap the turn after a calm flop?

11BB + 8BB = 19BB vs our 4BB ( 4.75 : 1)

Still plenty of odds.

I don't see how we can fold this Preflop given the massive amount of implied odds coming our way -- and that we have a pretty easy choice once we see the flop.

I know I have excluded the odds that one of opponents could out flush us. But I have also excluded our ability to make a nut straight.

So -- who wants to rail the heck out of me and tell me how many places and ways I am wrong here?

ihardlyknowher · #8 06-14-2005, 11:12 AM

With that many players in the hand, I would see the flop.

ihardlyknowher · #9 06-14-2005, 11:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
So -- who wants to rail the heck out of me and tell me how many places and ways I am wrong here?

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, your analysis underestimates the potential returns of hitting a hand and overestimates the potential cost of seeing the flop, which is what makes it such a great argument.

Sifmole · #10 06-14-2005, 11:21 AM

So, you think the analysis is reasonable? and the conclusion as well?