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#21
08-13-2005, 03:19 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
[ QUOTE ]
This is a clear fold with these blinds, but that guy with AK made a horrible call. He had an even clearer fold. [/ QUOTE ] thanks for putting this in prospective for these people. lol 
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#22
08-13-2005, 03:47 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
I'm amazed at the number of people saying that they'd fold/limp/raise to 3x bb. To me, this is a clear raise or fold. If you limp, you take a good hand and risk losing your chips to a crappy hand or being pushed around by the bb. Your M is only 6, and your effective M is even less.
I think the calling range used for the calculations is far, far too loose. Yes, it's a low buy-in. However, at low buy-ins, people seem (to me) to play even tighter on the bubble than normal, because they're weak players. They don't understand that being aggressive on the bubble is the way to win tournaments. You have a top 10% hand, and happened to run into a bigger hand...like others have said, tough luck. Folding hands like this while waiting for the short stack to bust out is a good way to get lots of 3rd place finishes when you get ITM with no stack remaining. Maybe I'm too aggressive, but to me this is a push every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
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#23
08-13-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
[ QUOTE ]
I think the calling range used for the calculations is far, far too loose. [/ QUOTE ] Fine, you are free to disagree with me, but I've played thousands of low buy-in SNGs and I think this range is pretty accurate for a donk with a big stack. You can go ahead and tighten it if you want, it barely makes a difference in this case because the blinds are so small. For example, if you were to tighten ALL THREE of the other players' ranges to the top 10% only (55+, ATo+, A8s+, KQs), your EV for pushing is -0.3%. [ QUOTE ] Folding hands like this while waiting for the short stack to bust out is a good way to get lots of 3rd place finishes when you get ITM with no stack remaining. [/ QUOTE ] No, folding hands like this is a good way to increase your ROI. [ QUOTE ] to me this is a push every day of the week and twice on Sunday [/ QUOTE ] Perhaps you should reconsider your position then [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#24
08-13-2005, 04:45 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
good luck with those 3rd places. you will never win a tournament if you fold here 100%. the ev calculations are so close that they dont really matter.
the fact is, you are not likely to see a better hand than this for a long time and this is a good chance to try to pick up the blinds. pushing accomplishes this the best. so you fold every hand on the bubble other than AA, KK, or AK? i dont get it.
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#25
08-13-2005, 04:55 PM
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Pushing is marginal AT BEST
I don't think I really made this clear in my first post. Pushing here is not good. You have a healthy stack and the push is only marginally profitable even if all 3 of your opponents are quite tight. All this "playing for 1sts" nonsense needs to stop, it's meaningless. OBVIOUSLY AJo is a very strong hand 4-handed, but hand value is just one among many considerations on the bubble.
You should have folded, IC5.
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#26
08-13-2005, 05:00 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
[ QUOTE ]
so you fold every hand on the bubble other than AA, KK, or AK? i dont get it. [/ QUOTE ] 22 is a better hand than AJ. You are pushing UTG with two big stacks in the blinds. If you were UTG+1 and only had one big stack to worry about, I think the EV would change significantly, and would guess that AJ would be a push.
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#27
08-13-2005, 05:04 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
[ QUOTE ]
22 is a better hand than AJ. [/ QUOTE ] Umm, no. Hot and cold, yes (although AJs is a favorite over 22, actually). But for pushing into a bunch of random hands, you definitely want the AJo.
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#28
08-13-2005, 05:13 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
Is it really that hard to understand? The goal is to maximize EV, not win the tournament. Please explain to me how you are going to make more money by making -EV pushes such as this. You'e risking a healthy stack UTG when there is a guy with only 3xBB and another guy in the BB with almost half the chips in play for a payoff of only 300 chips! Are those 300 chips going significantly improve your relative chip position? NO. You are risking far too much for far too little. Even if you win those chips, you'll still only have around 2000 chips and won't be in a much better position to compete for first than you would be by folding.
So be patient and fold.
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#29
08-13-2005, 05:17 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
well im wrong again. i should be getting used to this. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] i see the reasons why folding is correct, but i doubt that during a hand i would be able to let this go. and if i do play, i have to push.
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#30
08-13-2005, 05:28 PM
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Re: What a STUPID 4th place...what should have I done?
I agree entirely with this, yes as we know there is AK out there it is -EV, but you don't know, so to say fold is the correct option is nonsense IMHO
Damian [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] i'd like to see the math that shows this as -EV. it feels to me like most responses in this thread are being too results oriented. [/ QUOTE ]
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