Meta and Future Value

BoxTree · #1 10-24-2005, 06:01 PM

Commerce 20/40, 9-handed

Hero is in the Hijack with with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

2 limps, Hero raises, folds to BB, BB calls, limpers call.

Flop (4 players, 8 sb): A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checks to Hero, Hero bets, BB calls, 1 limper calls.

Turn (3 players, 5.5 bb): 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Checks to Hero, Hero bets, BB calls, limper folds.

River (2 players, 7.5 bb): J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB says, "That's a bad beat, kid," and bets. Hero...?

Notes on Villain: I've played with him before but only vaguely remember him. He's a 40/80 player and is waiting for a game. Apparently, he remembers playing with me as he refers to me as his "fellow triber." He also says that he's cutting me a break since I'm a good kid. I have absolutely no reason to believe that he's feeding me crap and is trying to induce a fold. I think he just put a bad beat on me by hitting his backdoor flush. (I don't think he has a straight since he wouldn't refer to that as a "bad beat," but yeah, he could have a straight.)

But I now have a set of Jacks.

I give pause. I ask, "Did you really just hit your runner runner flush?"

He doesn't respond.

I pause. "Will you show if I fold?"

He answers, "You know what? I'm gonna teach you a lesson now. No."

I pause.

I'm going to post results here since I don't care about this part of the hand.

I say, "I believe you anyways," and I face-up fold my Jacks. As my cards are in mid-air (not in my hands) approaching the muck (so, BEFORE he sees my hand), he turns over his hand (Td8d for the rivered flush...and straight) and says, "Eh, you're a good kid."

So, who calls here? Who folds? Who raises (and what's your screenname)?

But I don't really care about that.

In the future, let's say I had AdKd. Do you raise the river? Or do just call? This isn't a "nice guy" vs. "I'd raise my own grandmother" question. I'm considering EV. Raising should show a little more EV than calling since I can only benefit by raising. So, as long as he calls a raise >0% of the time, a raise is +EV. Pretty standard when you're holding the nuts in position. But what about the future? If I raise here, he's not likely to give me a break in the future, so I'll have to call his river bet (in the future) with my set of Jacks. That would likely make my raise with AdKd -EV since I'm much more likely to call his bet (with my set) than he is to call my bet (with a lower flush against a raise on the river). So, is it worth softplaying with a guy who knows me better than I know him? Another option would be to raise the river and say something like, "Don't worry, it's not a bad beat," and if he calls, toss him back two chips or something. That may be the highest EV situation as I think he'd continue to "give me a break" in the future.

etizzle · #2 10-24-2005, 06:06 PM

this is terrible. There is more than one hand he can have that he thought 'bad beat' you that in fact are no good. AJ, J7, and J9 would all think they are good.

Of course he probably has a flush, but the above plus the chances he is just messing with you make this a must call. Folding here is pretty bad.

BoxTree · #3 10-24-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this is terrible. There is more than one hand he can have that he thought 'bad beat' you that in fact are no good. AJ, J7, and J9 would all think they are good.

Of course he probably has a flush, but the above plus the chances he is just messing with you make this a must call. Folding here is pretty bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to believe he has a flush at least 88% of the time for a fold to be correct. My read says he has a flush about...oh...just shy of 100% of the time. Two pair does not a bad beat make. Remember, I could have AA or AJ and I would have played the hand the same way. And he knows it.

Edit: I'm not really interested in whether people think I should call this river. It was highly read-dependent and I knew I was beat. But what about the other questions I posed?

me454555 · #4 10-24-2005, 06:15 PM

First of all, he didn't bad beat you. He flopped an oesd and rivered the flush, such is life. I think your laydown is fine in the heat of battle as most of the time when a player says this he's being sincere and at least hit a strait on ya.

On your other question, raising w/the nuts is an absolute must. After he says he bad beat you, he is paying you off close to 100% of the time on your river raise so this raise is worth close to 1 full BB. On top of that, how often will you actually be in a hand like this against him in this type of situation? Multiply that by the times that he will announce that he has bad beat you and I think that you will not make 1 BB back from him by just calling the river when you make the nuts.

BoxTree · #5 10-24-2005, 06:19 PM

When I move up to 40/80, I may see this situation over and over again. Like worm said, this isn't something I plan on making a habit. But against certain players....

me454555 · #6 10-24-2005, 06:21 PM

yes but do you think he will be that nice to you in a 40/80 game? Maybe since the stakes were lower, he didn't care too much about the extra bet. On top of that, if you raise him and make a witty comeback, he might get a good laugh and still like you for it.

worm33 · #7 10-24-2005, 06:12 PM

To anybody who plays live poker and has any people reading skills this is an easy fold. You should usualy be able to tell when a guy is flat out lying to you. If you are 100% sure that this guy would never take a shot at you and would give u breaks, I would in turn give him a break sometime. Dont make it a habit and dont do it with anybody else in the pot but its part of live poker, especaily when you play everyday with the same guys.

BoxTree · #8 10-24-2005, 06:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
To anybody who plays live poker and has any people reading skills this is an easy fold. You should usualy be able to tell when a guy is flat out lying to you. If you are 100% sure that this guy would never take a shot at you and would give u breaks, I would in turn give him a break sometime. Dont make it a habit and dont do it with anybody else in the pot but its part of live poker, especaily when you play everyday with the same guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much exactly what I was thinking.

Ah...more confirmation bias. Tastes so good (now with Vitamin C!)

Justin A · #9 10-24-2005, 06:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
To anybody who plays live poker and has any people reading skills this is an easy fold. You should usualy be able to tell when a guy is flat out lying to you. If you are 100% sure that this guy would never take a shot at you and would give u breaks, I would in turn give him a break sometime. Dont make it a habit and dont do it with anybody else in the pot but its part of live poker, especaily when you play everyday with the same guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you say you'd give him a break sometime, what ways are you looking to do this? I'm sure there are better ways than others to do this that cost you less but look just as generous to your opponent.

Edit to add/ I'll often show my hand in a session when I have a very strong hand and showing won't give anything away about how I'm playing. This is in hopes that someone will softplay me later in the session. I assume what you're talking about is similar but on a bigger scale where you play the same people day in and day out.

BoxTree · #10 10-24-2005, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Edit to add/ I'll often show my hand in a session when I have a very strong hand and showing won't give anything away about how I'm playing. This is in hopes that someone will softplay me later in the session. I assume what you're talking about is similar but on a bigger scale where you play the same people day in and day out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, your edit is a perfect example of how I'd try to induce a softplay in the future.