a question about downswings

[Adam22]

i recently started playing 10/20 with my appropriate 6000 dollar bankroll. i did well for my first 25,000 or so hands and was maintaining about 2bb/100. then this week i hit a massive downswing and lost all of my profit as well as another 50bb... my question is how unusual is that? i know 300bb is supposed to be sufficient... however within this downswing i've seemingly went from 600bb to less than 300bb which seems really unlikely. this whole thing has me kinda spooked in the head even though i'm essentially 100% confident in my play throughout it.

[baronzeus]

2BB/100 over 25000 hands is 500BB. so if you went on a 550BB downswing at 10/20, its not normal. even a 350BB downswing isnt normal. i suggest working on your game.


but they do happen.

[toss]

Like the baron says its either your game or one in a million bad luck.

Adam22
I am also looking for an answer to this question. Although my story is a little less hardluck than yours, everytime I win over a decent period I have a huge downswing and lose it all back. Of course there is about a million bad beats but I find my main problem is I play good hands and the flop NEVER hits me, or I hit a good hand but someone hits something slightly better. While I adjust to different tables I end up playing low 20% of flops. I keep notes on players...... all that stuff. I play 6 handed mostly which might be my problem
as I'm probably not aggressive enough for that.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course there is about a million bad beats but I find my main problem is I play good hands and the flop NEVER hits me, or I hit a good hand but someone hits something slightly better.

[/ QUOTE ]
Reading this leads me to believe that a larger portion of the problem lies in your game. Specifically not being able to release good hands that don't connect on the flop, reading your opponents hands well, losing too much on marginal hands, not adjusting to your opponents tendencies, not adjusting to the table texture, etc...

[ QUOTE ]
I play 6 handed mostly which might be my problem as I'm probably not aggressive enough for that.

[/ QUOTE ]
The #1 thing that came to mind when I read this is how many posts I've read detailing how much larger and more frequent the swings in 6-max games are versus full-ring games.

If you're having this big of downswings, I'd seriously consider switching limits. 10/20 seems like a helluva place to learn...

[Petteri]

If you play 10/20 $ 6max, 550 BB downswing is not impossible for winning player. But since you do not have over 100k hands sample it is hard to tell if you really are winning player.

But losing 550 BB is so bad mentally that you should move down limits to regain confidence. And while you do not have bankroll for 10/20 $ any longer, it is other good reason to move down.

If you are "tilting" you can blow your remaining bankroll quickly if you continue playing 10/20 $.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
...has me kinda spooked in the head even though i'm essentially 100% confident in my play throughout it.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you do not question your play after you go through this sort of downswing then, imho, you are deluded.

why are you so confident in your play? what criteria do you use that allows for you to be confident that you play well?

for me... even if i am crushing the game for a couple of days and am in the throes of that euphoria that one gets from being on a good run, a euphoria that a self-aware player "knows" is a product of variance and not a product of "good play," the moment that the "run" is over is the moment that i, again, begin to question and analyze my game.

we are never as good, at times, as we think we are nor as bad, at times, as we think we are.

we can only play, anayze and attempt to continue learning.

for your sake i hope that i am misunderstanding your statement quoted above.

the preceding is not offered up as criticism but, rather, as an observation.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
this whole thing has me kinda spooked in the head even though i'm essentially 100% confident in my play throughout it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've had two 200+ BB downswings since July, and I was not 100% confident in my play during either stretch. I was reexamining and rethinking hands constantly.

[Adam22]

i definetly do question my play over and over but i feel that the way i play now is essentially is just a refined version of the way i have always played which definetly fits the TAG style that 2+2 teaches. can someone point me to a post where someone posts their stats for review? i'd like to do the same to get some opinions but i'm unsure of what format to use.